Drying of tundra landscapes will limit subsidence-induced acceleration of permafrost thaw: Modeling Archive ...

• Main Authors: Painter, Scott, Jan, Ahmad, Coon, Ethan
• Format: Dataset
• Language: English
• Published: Next Generation Ecosystems Experiment - Arctic, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (US); NGEE Arctic, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States) 2022
• Subjects: 54 Environmental Sciences; Barrow, Alaska; Arctic; Barrow; Ice; permafrost; Tundra; wedge*; Alaska
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.5440/1876200; https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1876200/

This Modeling Archive is in support of a NGEE Arctic publication in review “ Drying of tundra landscapes will limit subsidence-induced acceleration of permafrost thaw ”. The study used a cryohydrology model to assess the potential risk of abrupt permafrost thaw triggered by melting ground ice, a key open question associated with permafrost response to a warming Arctic. The spatially resolved simulations are for a small catchment 465 ice-wedge polygons in polygonal tundra near Utqiaġvik, Alaska in the high-emissions RCP8.5 climate scenario. The simulations are compared to runoff, evapotranspiration and subsidence in the current climate and agree well. The study used the ATS code configured as an intermediate-scale cryohydrology model (Advanced Terrestrial Simulator, Version ngee_ism_v2 https://github.com/amanzi/amanzi/releases/tag/ngee_ism_v2). The archive includes input files for spinup (1985 to 2005) and projections (2006 to 2100 – the manuscript reports 2006 to 2098). Three of the projections include the ...