Effect of soil property uncertainties on permafrost thaw projections: a calibration-constrained analysis: Modeling Archive

• Main Authors: Harp, Dylan, Atchley, Adam, Painter, Scott, Coon, Ethan, Wilson, Cathy, Romanovsky, Vladimir, Rowland, Joel
• Format: Dataset
• Language: English
• Published: Next Generation Ecosystems Experiment - Arctic, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (US); NGEE Arctic, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States) 2016
• Subjects: 54 Environmental Sciences; Active layer thickness;Permafrost projections;Soil property uncertainty;Calibration-constrained analysis;Utqiagvik, Alaska;North Slope, Alaska;Barrow, Alaska; Arctic; Active layer thickness; Alaska North Slope; Barrow; Ice; north slope; permafrost; wedge*; Alaska
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.5440/1236647; https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1236647/

This Modeling Archive is in support of an NGEE Arctic publication available at doi:10.5194/tc-10-341-2016. This dataset contains an ensemble of thermal-hydro soil parameters including porosity, thermal conductivity, thermal conductivity shape parameters, and residual saturation of peat and mineral soil. The ensemble was generated using a Null-Space Monte Carlo analysis of parameter uncertainty based on a calibration to soil temperatures collected at the Barrow Environmental Observatory site by the NGEE team. The micro-topography of ice wedge polygons present at the site is included in the analysis using three 1D column models to represent polygon center, rim and trough features. The Arctic Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) was used in the calibration to model multiphase thermal and hydrological processes in the subsurface. doi:10.5440/1236647; https://doi.org/10.5440/1236647