Deciphering Hydrochemical Information Provided By Saline Springs In The Carpathians Bend Area: No Strong Vrancea Earthquake Expected To Occur Earlier Than 2012

• Main Authors: MARIN, Constantin, MITROFAN, Horia, DINU, Irina, TUDORACHE, Alin
• Format: Text
• Language: unknown
• Published: Zenodo 2010
• Subjects: earthquake, precursor, groundwater, hydrochemical monitoring, saline spring, Vrancea; Endeavour; Boden; Lier; Iceland
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.56963; https://zenodo.org/record/56963

Abstract. Several natural groundwater discharges in Vrancea seismic area were inferred to originate in the mixing between two distinct end-members: seasonally variable inflows of meteoric freshwater, and deep-origin saline fluids of a remarkably constant composition. However, prior to two rather strong Vrancea earthquakes (mb = 5.8 and 5.3 respectively), the composition of the saline end-members appeared to significantly change as well. The approximate durations of the corresponding anomalous precursory periods, of 18 months and 10 months respectively, were apparently directly correlated to the magnitudes of the ensuing earthquakes. Consequently, it has been assumed that an earthquake of magnitude 5.8 or larger was expected to occur no earlier than 18 months after a last series of “un-perturbed” samples; in particular, since the concerned springs samples collected on May 2010 exhibited no abnormal signatures, it seems unlikely that a strong Vrancea earthquake would occur sooner than 2012. : {"references": ["Arn\u00f3rsson S., Andr\u00e9sd\u00f3ttir A. (1995) - Processes controlling the distribution", "of boron and chlorine in natural waters in Iceland. Geochim.", "Cosmochim. Acta, 59, 4125-4146.", "Cloetingh S., Ziegler P.A., Beekman F., Andriessen P.A.M., Ma\u0163enco L., Bada", "G., Garcia-Castellanos D., Hardebol N., D\u00e8zes P., Sokoutis D. (2005) -", "Lithospheric memory, state of stress and rheology: neotectonic", "controls on Europe\u2019s intraplate continental topography. Quaternary", "Sci. Rev., 24, 241\u2013304.", "Dumitrescu I., S\u0103ndulescu M. (1970) - Tectonic Map of Romania, Scale", "1:1.000.000. Geological Atlas, sheet no. 6, Inst. Geol. Rom., Romania.", "Foustoukos D.I., James R.H., Berndt M.E., Seyfried W.E. Jr. (2004) - Lithium", "isotopic systematics of hydrothermal vent fluids at the Main Endeavour", "Field, Northern Juan de Fuca Ridge, Chem. Geol., 212,", "17-26.", "Hartmann J., Berner Z., St\u00fcben D., Henze N. (2005) - A statistical procedure", "for the analysis of seismotectonically induced hydrochemical", "signals: a case study from the Eastern Carpathians, Romania.", "Tectonophysics, 405, 77-98.", "Knapp J. H., Knapp C. C., R\u0103ileanu V., Ma\u0163enco L., Moca nu V., Dinu C. (2005) -", "Crustal constraints on the origin of mantle seismicity in the Vrancea", "Zone, Romania: The case for active continental lithospheric", "delamination. Tectonophysics, 410, 311-323.", "Liu C.P., Wang C.H., Hwa ng L.S. (2010) - Temporal variation of seepage", "water chemistry before and after the Hengchun Ms 7.2 earthquake", "in south Taiwan. Geoderma, 155, 107-114.", "Ma\u0163enco L., Bertotti G. (2000) - Tertiary tectonic evolution of the external", "East Carpathians (Romania). Tectonophysics. 316, 255\u2013286.", "Mitrofa n H., Marin C., Zugr\u0103vescu D., Tudorac he A., Be\u015fu\u0163iu L., Radu M.", "(2008) - Transients of Giggenbach\u2019s Na-K-Mg-Ca geoindicators", "preceding the 27 October 2004, Mw = 6.0 earthquake in Vrancea", "area (Romania), Terra Nova, 20, 87-94.", "Mitrofa n H., Marin C., Zugr\u0103vescu D., Chitea F., Anghelac he M.A., Be\u015fu\u0163iu L.,", "Tudorac he A. (2010) - Persistent pre-seismic signature detected by", "means of Na-K-Mg geothermometry records in a saline spring of", "Vrancea area (Romania). Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 217\u2013225.", "Panaiotu C.E., Vasiliev I., Panaiotu C.G., Krijgsman W., Langereis C.G. (2007)", "- Provenance analysis as a key to orogenic exhumation: a case", "study from the East Carpathians (Romania). Terra Nova, 19, 120-", "126.", "Pecskay Z., Edelstein O., Seghedi I., Szakac s A., Kovac s M., Crihan M., Bernad", "A. (1995) - K\u2013Ar datings of Neogene\u2013Quaternary calc-alkaline", "volcanic rocks in Romania. Acta Volcanol. 7, 53\u201361.", "Skelton A., Claesson L., Chakrapa ni G., Mahanta C., Routh J., Morth M.,", "Khanna P. (2008) - Coupling between seismic activity and hydrogeochemistry", "at the Shillong Plateau, Northeastern India. Pure", "Appl. Geophys., 165, 45-61.", "Toutain J.P., Munoz M., Poitrasson F., Lienard A.C. (1997) - Springwater", "chloride ion anomaly prior to a ML = 5.2 Pyrenean earthquake.", "Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 149, 113-119.", "Toutain J.P., Munoz M., Pinaud J.L., Levet S., Sylva nder M., Rigo A. and Esca", "lier J. (2006) - Modelling the mixing function to constrain coseismic", "hydrochemical effects: an example from the French Pyr\u00e9n\u00e9es.", "Pure Appl. Geophys., 163, 723-744.", "Tschermak G. (1880) - Der Boden und die Quellen von Slanik, Mineralog.", "und petrogr. Mittheilungen, III (4), 315-335.", "Tsunogai U., Wakita H. (1995) - Precursory chemical changes in ground", "water: Kobe earthquake, Japan, Science, 269, 61-63.", "Vaselli O., Minissale A., Tassi F., Magro G., Seghedi I., Ioane D., Szakac s A.", "(2002) - A geochemical traverse across the Eastern Carpathians", "(Romania): constraints on the origin and evolution of the mineral", "water and gas discharges. Chem. Geol., 182, 637-654.", "Yechieli Y., Bein A. (2002) - Response of groundwater systems in the", "Dead Sea Rift Valley to the Nuweiba earthquake: Changes in", "head, water chemistry, and near-surface effects, J. Geophys. Res.,", "107, 2332, doi:10.1029/2001JB001100."]}