Predicting the Foraging Patterns of Wintering Auks Using a Sea Surface Temperature Model for the Barents Sea
Background: The conservation of seabirds is becoming increasingly important due to their status as indicator species of ocean ecosystems, which are predicted to experience increasing levels of exploitation and human conflict this century. To safeguard these ecosystems against these threats will requ...
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ftdatacite:10.5281/zenodo.4445075 2023-05-15T13:12:18+02:00 Predicting the Foraging Patterns of Wintering Auks Using a Sea Surface Temperature Model for the Barents Sea Hodges, Samuel Erikstad, Kjell-Einar Reiertsen, Tone Kirsten 2021 https://dx.doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4445075 https://zenodo.org/record/4445075 en eng Zenodo https://dx.doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4445074 Open Access Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode cc-by-4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC-BY MaxENT Uria lomvia Uria aalge Fratercula arctica Alca torda SST model Norway Barents Sea Text Journal article article-journal ScholarlyArticle 2021 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4445075 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4445074 2021-11-05T12:55:41Z Background: The conservation of seabirds is becoming increasingly important due to their status as indicator species of ocean ecosystems, which are predicted to experience increasing levels of exploitation and human conflict this century. To safeguard these ecosystems against these threats will require predictive, spatial studies of seabird foraging hotspots. Current research on seabird foraging hotspots has established a significant relationship between probability of presence and several environmental variables, including Sea Surface Temperature (SST). However, all of these studies have been directed at understanding present or historical distributions of seabird populations. Methods: In this study, we present a novel solution to predict presence from spatially and temporally variable environmental predictors. We model the Maximum Entropy (MaxENT) Model derived relationship between Standard SST and Habitat Suitability using Gaussian models, and then convert independent Standard SST data to produce heatmaps of predicted seabird presence. Results: In this study we demonstrate Standard SST to be a functional environmental predictor of seabird presence, within a Gaussian model framework. We demonstrate accurate predictions of the model’s training data and of independent seabird presence data to a high degree of accuracy (Area under the ROC Curve > 0.65) for four different species of Auk; Puffins, Razorbills, Common Guillemot, and Brunnich’s Guillemot. Conclusions: We believe that the methodology we have developed and tested in this study can be used to guide conservation policy and ecosystem management practices by converting Ocean Climate model predictions into predictions of future Habitat Suitability for the species, allowing us to consider the possible effects of climate change and yearly variation of SST on foraging Seabird hotspots. Text Alca torda Barents Sea common guillemot fratercula Fratercula arctica Uria aalge Uria lomvia uria DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) Barents Sea Norway |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
op_collection_id |
ftdatacite |
language |
English |
topic |
MaxENT Uria lomvia Uria aalge Fratercula arctica Alca torda SST model Norway Barents Sea |
spellingShingle |
MaxENT Uria lomvia Uria aalge Fratercula arctica Alca torda SST model Norway Barents Sea Hodges, Samuel Erikstad, Kjell-Einar Reiertsen, Tone Kirsten Predicting the Foraging Patterns of Wintering Auks Using a Sea Surface Temperature Model for the Barents Sea |
topic_facet |
MaxENT Uria lomvia Uria aalge Fratercula arctica Alca torda SST model Norway Barents Sea |
description |
Background: The conservation of seabirds is becoming increasingly important due to their status as indicator species of ocean ecosystems, which are predicted to experience increasing levels of exploitation and human conflict this century. To safeguard these ecosystems against these threats will require predictive, spatial studies of seabird foraging hotspots. Current research on seabird foraging hotspots has established a significant relationship between probability of presence and several environmental variables, including Sea Surface Temperature (SST). However, all of these studies have been directed at understanding present or historical distributions of seabird populations. Methods: In this study, we present a novel solution to predict presence from spatially and temporally variable environmental predictors. We model the Maximum Entropy (MaxENT) Model derived relationship between Standard SST and Habitat Suitability using Gaussian models, and then convert independent Standard SST data to produce heatmaps of predicted seabird presence. Results: In this study we demonstrate Standard SST to be a functional environmental predictor of seabird presence, within a Gaussian model framework. We demonstrate accurate predictions of the model’s training data and of independent seabird presence data to a high degree of accuracy (Area under the ROC Curve > 0.65) for four different species of Auk; Puffins, Razorbills, Common Guillemot, and Brunnich’s Guillemot. Conclusions: We believe that the methodology we have developed and tested in this study can be used to guide conservation policy and ecosystem management practices by converting Ocean Climate model predictions into predictions of future Habitat Suitability for the species, allowing us to consider the possible effects of climate change and yearly variation of SST on foraging Seabird hotspots. |
format |
Text |
author |
Hodges, Samuel Erikstad, Kjell-Einar Reiertsen, Tone Kirsten |
author_facet |
Hodges, Samuel Erikstad, Kjell-Einar Reiertsen, Tone Kirsten |
author_sort |
Hodges, Samuel |
title |
Predicting the Foraging Patterns of Wintering Auks Using a Sea Surface Temperature Model for the Barents Sea |
title_short |
Predicting the Foraging Patterns of Wintering Auks Using a Sea Surface Temperature Model for the Barents Sea |
title_full |
Predicting the Foraging Patterns of Wintering Auks Using a Sea Surface Temperature Model for the Barents Sea |
title_fullStr |
Predicting the Foraging Patterns of Wintering Auks Using a Sea Surface Temperature Model for the Barents Sea |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predicting the Foraging Patterns of Wintering Auks Using a Sea Surface Temperature Model for the Barents Sea |
title_sort |
predicting the foraging patterns of wintering auks using a sea surface temperature model for the barents sea |
publisher |
Zenodo |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4445075 https://zenodo.org/record/4445075 |
geographic |
Barents Sea Norway |
geographic_facet |
Barents Sea Norway |
genre |
Alca torda Barents Sea common guillemot fratercula Fratercula arctica Uria aalge Uria lomvia uria |
genre_facet |
Alca torda Barents Sea common guillemot fratercula Fratercula arctica Uria aalge Uria lomvia uria |
op_relation |
https://dx.doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4445074 |
op_rights |
Open Access Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode cc-by-4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4445075 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4445074 |
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1766251291968798720 |