Spatiotemporal influence of permafrost thaw on anthrax diffusion ...

• Main Authors: Stella, Elisa, Mari, Lorenzo, Gabrieli, Jacopo, Barbante, Carlo, Bertuzzo, Enrico
• Format: Text
• Language: unknown
• Published: Zenodo 2020
• Subjects: Arctic; Climate change; permafrost; Siberia
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4139771; https://zenodo.org/record/4139771

The recent 2016 outbreak of anthrax disease affecting reindeer herds in Siberia has been associated to the presence of old infected carcasses released from thawing permafrost, underlying the emerging character of such disease in the Arctic region due to climate change. Anthrax occurs in nature as a global zoonotic and epizootic disease caused by the spore-forming bacterium Bacillus anthracis. It principally affects herbivores and causes high animal mortality. Transmission occurs mainly via environmental contamination through spores which can remain viable in permafrost for many decades. We propose and analyze a novel epidemiological model for anthrax transmission specifically tailored for the Arctic region. It conceptualizes the transmission of disease between susceptible and infected animals in the presence of environmental contamination, considering also herding practices (e.g. seasonal grazing) and the seasonal environmental forcing caused by thawing permafrost. We performed stability analyses and ...