Arctic Climate Spatio-temporal Modes of Variability as Sources of Predictability
The Arctic region has suffered a transformation in the past decades that will very likely continue in the future. Since the late 1970s, declining trends in pan-Arctic sea ice extent and volume, and increasing trends in air and sea surface temperature have been observed. However, the region has a lar...
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
---|---|
Format: | Conference Object |
Language: | unknown |
Published: |
Zenodo
2018
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://dx.doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3560614 https://zenodo.org/record/3560614 |
id |
ftdatacite:10.5281/zenodo.3560614 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdatacite:10.5281/zenodo.3560614 2023-05-15T14:38:16+02:00 Arctic Climate Spatio-temporal Modes of Variability as Sources of Predictability Acosta Navarro, Juan Camilo Hunter, Alasdair Guemas, Virginie Ortega, Pablo García-Serrano, Javier Tourigny, Etienne Cruz-García, Rubén Doblas-Reyes, Francisco 2018 https://dx.doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3560614 https://zenodo.org/record/3560614 unknown Zenodo https://zenodo.org/communities/applicate https://dx.doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3560613 https://zenodo.org/communities/applicate Open Access Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode cc-by-4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess CC-BY Text Presentation article-journal ScholarlyArticle 2018 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3560614 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3560613 2021-11-05T12:55:41Z The Arctic region has suffered a transformation in the past decades that will very likely continue in the future. Since the late 1970s, declining trends in pan-Arctic sea ice extent and volume, and increasing trends in air and sea surface temperature have been observed. However, the region has a large natural climate variability that can usually be mistaken for a long-term forced response. Furthermore, this natural Arctic variability has been linked to mid-latitude weather extremes in the northern hemisphere, both as a cause and a as response. Disentangling natural variability and forced response is of critical importance from a climate change perspective. Using observational evidence and advanced statistical methods (K-mean clustering), we studied natural modes of variability in key Arctic climate variables (i.e. sea ice concentration, sea surface and near surface air temperature). The main objective was to identify spatio-temporal coherence in the series and lag-lead correlations between variables after detrending them. Sea ice concentrations show three main modes of variability, as previously found. Both atmospheric near surface temperature and sea surface temperatures can individually affect sea ice and partly explain some regional patterns of natural variability on seasonal timescales. Pan-arctic sea ice extent shows a delayed response of 1-3 months to near surface air temperature and about a year to sea surface temperature variations. Conference Object Arctic Climate change Sea ice DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) Arctic |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
op_collection_id |
ftdatacite |
language |
unknown |
description |
The Arctic region has suffered a transformation in the past decades that will very likely continue in the future. Since the late 1970s, declining trends in pan-Arctic sea ice extent and volume, and increasing trends in air and sea surface temperature have been observed. However, the region has a large natural climate variability that can usually be mistaken for a long-term forced response. Furthermore, this natural Arctic variability has been linked to mid-latitude weather extremes in the northern hemisphere, both as a cause and a as response. Disentangling natural variability and forced response is of critical importance from a climate change perspective. Using observational evidence and advanced statistical methods (K-mean clustering), we studied natural modes of variability in key Arctic climate variables (i.e. sea ice concentration, sea surface and near surface air temperature). The main objective was to identify spatio-temporal coherence in the series and lag-lead correlations between variables after detrending them. Sea ice concentrations show three main modes of variability, as previously found. Both atmospheric near surface temperature and sea surface temperatures can individually affect sea ice and partly explain some regional patterns of natural variability on seasonal timescales. Pan-arctic sea ice extent shows a delayed response of 1-3 months to near surface air temperature and about a year to sea surface temperature variations. |
format |
Conference Object |
author |
Acosta Navarro, Juan Camilo Hunter, Alasdair Guemas, Virginie Ortega, Pablo García-Serrano, Javier Tourigny, Etienne Cruz-García, Rubén Doblas-Reyes, Francisco |
spellingShingle |
Acosta Navarro, Juan Camilo Hunter, Alasdair Guemas, Virginie Ortega, Pablo García-Serrano, Javier Tourigny, Etienne Cruz-García, Rubén Doblas-Reyes, Francisco Arctic Climate Spatio-temporal Modes of Variability as Sources of Predictability |
author_facet |
Acosta Navarro, Juan Camilo Hunter, Alasdair Guemas, Virginie Ortega, Pablo García-Serrano, Javier Tourigny, Etienne Cruz-García, Rubén Doblas-Reyes, Francisco |
author_sort |
Acosta Navarro, Juan Camilo |
title |
Arctic Climate Spatio-temporal Modes of Variability as Sources of Predictability |
title_short |
Arctic Climate Spatio-temporal Modes of Variability as Sources of Predictability |
title_full |
Arctic Climate Spatio-temporal Modes of Variability as Sources of Predictability |
title_fullStr |
Arctic Climate Spatio-temporal Modes of Variability as Sources of Predictability |
title_full_unstemmed |
Arctic Climate Spatio-temporal Modes of Variability as Sources of Predictability |
title_sort |
arctic climate spatio-temporal modes of variability as sources of predictability |
publisher |
Zenodo |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3560614 https://zenodo.org/record/3560614 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Sea ice |
op_relation |
https://zenodo.org/communities/applicate https://dx.doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3560613 https://zenodo.org/communities/applicate |
op_rights |
Open Access Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode cc-by-4.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3560614 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3560613 |
_version_ |
1766310379462328320 |