D3.2. End-of-Project KGSIR on interaction of ocean heat uptake and radiative feedback change via SST-pattern change ...

• Main Author: CONSTRAIN
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: Zenodo 2022
• Subjects: ocean heat uptake; radiative feedback change; SST-pattern; Sea ice; Southern Ocean
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10125153; https://zenodo.org/doi/10.5281/zenodo.10125153

Work Package: WP3 Deliverable number: D3.2 Deliverable title: End-of-Project KGSIR on interaction of ocean heat uptake and radiative feedback change via SST-pattern change Key messages: Post 1980 the Earth warmed with a configuration of SST patterns (cooling in the eastern Pacific and Southern Ocean) that results in feedbacks that are uncorrelated with – and indicating much lower equilibrium climate sensitivity than—that expected for long-term CO2 increase. Satellite observations of changes in top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes since 1985 are in agreement with Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) simulations forced with observed SST and sea-ice, and are suggestive of a relationship between the pattern effect and ocean heat uptake efficiency. The 2015/16 El-Nino had a substantial impact on the Earth's diagnosed feedback parameter, reducing it by ~25% due to a large warming of the eastern Pacific. Since then three La Nina's in a row have been observed. The impact of this on radiative feedback is yet to ...