Statistical Analysis of Mountain Permafrost Temperatures ...

• Main Author: Zenklusen Mutter, Evelyn
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: Lausanne, EPFL 2011
• Subjects: permafrost
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.5075/epfl-thesis-5270; http://infoscience.epfl.ch/record/170281

The consequences of climate change are clearly visible in the Swiss Alps. In the past decades, increasing air temperatures have induced pronounced glacier retreat and permafrost thawing. Thawing permafrost in steep terrain is a potential natural hazard, as it can become unstable and trigger mass movements such as settlement, debris flows or rock fall. The WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF has been measuring ground temperatures and displacements in permafrost boreholes for more than a decade. This thesis aimed to analyse these ground temperatures with statistical methods, assessing possible changes, trends and physical coherencies. In a first step, temporal changes in daily ground temperatures measured in two adjacent boreholes at Muot da Barba Peider in the Eastern Swiss Alps were analysed. Statistical models, which could for example describe changes in the amplitudes or in the mean, were used to estimate possible trends. The results for the period 1996 - 2008 revealed increasing summer ...