Predicting high-wind events impacting Barrow, Alaska through analysis of past regional sea-level pressure patterns

• Main Authors: Kahn-Thornbrugh, Casey, Lynch, Amanda, Cassano, Liz
• Format: Text
• Language: unknown
• Published: University Corporation For Atmospheric Research (UCAR) 2003
• Subjects: Arctic; Chukchi Sea; Barrow; Beaufort Sea; Chukchi; Alaska; Siberia
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.5065/ybbw-ba96; https://opensky.ucar.edu/islandora/object/manuscripts:541

Barrow, Alaska is a coastal community that is vulnerable to coastal flooding and structural damage from local high-wind events during the "ice-free" season from late summer through autumn. Historically, high latitude cyclonic storms with high-winds rarely have affected Barrow, however, with the current warming trend in the Arctic, these storms with high-winds may become more intense. This project intended to identify regional sea-level pressure (SLP) patterns associated with high-wind events in Barrow. This was done with the use of the Self Organizing Map (SOM) algorithm, which identifies frequently occurring spatial patterns within a large data set. The regional of interest encompasses Alaska, eastern Siberia, the Chukchi Sea, the Bearing Sea, and the Beaufort Sea. The 12-hourly SLP input data was obtained from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis for the period August 1 to November 30 from 1948 to 2001. This data was run through the SOM software, which was configured to identify 48 distinct SLP patterns. The 48 SLP output patterns were compared to actual SLP patterns from 14 high-wind events in Barrow from 1950 to 2000. Seventy-two percent of the 12-hourly SLP patterns from the 14 storms were similar to one or more of the 48 SLP output patterns. With the identification of specific types of SLP patterns that have the potential to be destructive to Barrow, local weather forecasters can relay the information to Barrow residents so they are provided with enough time to prepare for these high-wind events.