High-arctic family planning: earlier spring onset advances age at first reproduction in barnacle geese ...

• Main Authors: Layton-Matthews, Kate, Fjelldal, Mari Aas, Lee, Aline Magdalena, Grøtan, Vidar, J.J.E. Loonen, Maarten, Bremset Hansen, Brage
• Format: Dataset
• Language: English
• Published: Dryad 2020
• Subjects: Population ecology; age at first reproduction; multi-event; state uncertainty; Arctic; Svalbard; Branta leucopsis; Climate change
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.5061/dryad.wdbrv15jz; https://datadryad.org/stash/dataset/doi:10.5061/dryad.wdbrv15jz

Quantifying how key life-history traits respond to climatic change is fundamental in understanding and predicting long-term population prospects. Age at first reproduction, which affects fitness and population dynamics, may be influenced by environmental stochasticity but has rarely been directly linked to climate change. Here, we use a case study from the highly seasonal and stochastic environment in high-arctic Svalbard, with strong temporal trends in breeding conditions, to test whether rapid climate warming may induce changes in age at first reproduction in barnacle geese, Branta leucopsis. Using long-term mark-recapture and reproductive data (1991-2017), we developed a multi-event model to estimate individual age at first reproduction (i.e., goslings produced). The annual probability of reproducing for the first time was negatively affected by population density but only for two-year olds, the earliest age of maturity. Furthermore, advanced spring onset positively influenced the probability of ... : Long-term individual mark recapture, based on multiple observations per year from 1991-2017. Covariates used as predictors in the model. ...