Data from: Model-based inference for estimating shifts in species distribution, area occupied and centre of gravity
Changing climate is already impacting the spatial distribution of many taxa, including bees, plants, birds, butterflies and fishes. A common goal is to detect range shifts in response to climate change, including changes in the centre of the population's distribution (the centre of gravity, COG...
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ftdatacite:10.5061/dryad.r1s8g 2023-05-15T18:49:05+02:00 Data from: Model-based inference for estimating shifts in species distribution, area occupied and centre of gravity Thorson, James T. Pinsky, Malin L. Ward, Eric J. 2017 https://dx.doi.org/10.5061/dryad.r1s8g http://datadryad.org/stash/dataset/doi:10.5061/dryad.r1s8g en eng Dryad https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/2041-210x.12567 Creative Commons Zero v1.0 Universal https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/legalcode cc0-1.0 CC0 distribution shift 1977-2013 Species distribution model bottom trawl survey data dataset Dataset 2017 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.r1s8g https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210x.12567 2022-02-08T12:53:43Z Changing climate is already impacting the spatial distribution of many taxa, including bees, plants, birds, butterflies and fishes. A common goal is to detect range shifts in response to climate change, including changes in the centre of the population's distribution (the centre of gravity, COG), population boundaries and area occupied. Conventional estimators, such as the abundance-weighted average (AWA) estimator for COG, confound range shifts with changes in the spatial distribution of available survey data and may be biased when the distribution of survey data shifts over time. AWA also does not estimate the standard error of COG in individual years and cannot incorporate data from multiple survey designs. To explicitly account for changes in the spatial distribution of survey effort, we propose an alternative species distribution function (SDF) estimator. The SDF approach involves calculating distribution metrics, including COG, population boundary and area occupied, directly from the predicted species distribution or density function. We illustrate the SDF approach using a spatiotemporal model that is available as an r package. Using simulated data, we confirm that the SDF substantially decreases bias in COG estimates relative to the AWA estimator. We then illustrate the method by analysing data from two data sets spanning 1977–2013 for 18 marine fishes along the U.S. West Coast. In our case study, the SDF estimator shows significant northward shifts for six of 18 species (with southward shifts for only 2), where two species (darkblotched and greenstriped rockfishes) have both a northward shift and a decreased area occupied. Pelagic species (e.g. Pacific hake and spiny dogfish) have more variable distribution than bottom-associated species. We also find substantial differences between AWA and SDF estimates of COG that are likely caused by shifts in sampling distribution (which affect the AWA but not the SDF estimator). We caution that common estimators for range shift can yield inappropriate inference whenever sampling designs have shifted over time. We conclude by suggesting further improvements in model-based approaches to analysing climate impacts, including methods addressing the impact of local and regional temperature changes on species distribution. : AFSC triennial and NWFSC annual shelf-slope bottom trawl surveys (spatially-restricted)A subset of locations and species obtained from the Alaska Fisheries Science Center triennial shelf survey (1977-2004) and Northwest Fisheries Science Center annual shelf-slope survey (2003-2013). Please see ReadMe.txt for more detailsArchive.csv Dataset Alaska spiny dogfish DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) Hake ENVELOPE(15.612,15.612,66.797,66.797) Pacific |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
op_collection_id |
ftdatacite |
language |
English |
topic |
distribution shift 1977-2013 Species distribution model bottom trawl survey data |
spellingShingle |
distribution shift 1977-2013 Species distribution model bottom trawl survey data Thorson, James T. Pinsky, Malin L. Ward, Eric J. Data from: Model-based inference for estimating shifts in species distribution, area occupied and centre of gravity |
topic_facet |
distribution shift 1977-2013 Species distribution model bottom trawl survey data |
description |
Changing climate is already impacting the spatial distribution of many taxa, including bees, plants, birds, butterflies and fishes. A common goal is to detect range shifts in response to climate change, including changes in the centre of the population's distribution (the centre of gravity, COG), population boundaries and area occupied. Conventional estimators, such as the abundance-weighted average (AWA) estimator for COG, confound range shifts with changes in the spatial distribution of available survey data and may be biased when the distribution of survey data shifts over time. AWA also does not estimate the standard error of COG in individual years and cannot incorporate data from multiple survey designs. To explicitly account for changes in the spatial distribution of survey effort, we propose an alternative species distribution function (SDF) estimator. The SDF approach involves calculating distribution metrics, including COG, population boundary and area occupied, directly from the predicted species distribution or density function. We illustrate the SDF approach using a spatiotemporal model that is available as an r package. Using simulated data, we confirm that the SDF substantially decreases bias in COG estimates relative to the AWA estimator. We then illustrate the method by analysing data from two data sets spanning 1977–2013 for 18 marine fishes along the U.S. West Coast. In our case study, the SDF estimator shows significant northward shifts for six of 18 species (with southward shifts for only 2), where two species (darkblotched and greenstriped rockfishes) have both a northward shift and a decreased area occupied. Pelagic species (e.g. Pacific hake and spiny dogfish) have more variable distribution than bottom-associated species. We also find substantial differences between AWA and SDF estimates of COG that are likely caused by shifts in sampling distribution (which affect the AWA but not the SDF estimator). We caution that common estimators for range shift can yield inappropriate inference whenever sampling designs have shifted over time. We conclude by suggesting further improvements in model-based approaches to analysing climate impacts, including methods addressing the impact of local and regional temperature changes on species distribution. : AFSC triennial and NWFSC annual shelf-slope bottom trawl surveys (spatially-restricted)A subset of locations and species obtained from the Alaska Fisheries Science Center triennial shelf survey (1977-2004) and Northwest Fisheries Science Center annual shelf-slope survey (2003-2013). Please see ReadMe.txt for more detailsArchive.csv |
format |
Dataset |
author |
Thorson, James T. Pinsky, Malin L. Ward, Eric J. |
author_facet |
Thorson, James T. Pinsky, Malin L. Ward, Eric J. |
author_sort |
Thorson, James T. |
title |
Data from: Model-based inference for estimating shifts in species distribution, area occupied and centre of gravity |
title_short |
Data from: Model-based inference for estimating shifts in species distribution, area occupied and centre of gravity |
title_full |
Data from: Model-based inference for estimating shifts in species distribution, area occupied and centre of gravity |
title_fullStr |
Data from: Model-based inference for estimating shifts in species distribution, area occupied and centre of gravity |
title_full_unstemmed |
Data from: Model-based inference for estimating shifts in species distribution, area occupied and centre of gravity |
title_sort |
data from: model-based inference for estimating shifts in species distribution, area occupied and centre of gravity |
publisher |
Dryad |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.5061/dryad.r1s8g http://datadryad.org/stash/dataset/doi:10.5061/dryad.r1s8g |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(15.612,15.612,66.797,66.797) |
geographic |
Hake Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Hake Pacific |
genre |
Alaska spiny dogfish |
genre_facet |
Alaska spiny dogfish |
op_relation |
https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/2041-210x.12567 |
op_rights |
Creative Commons Zero v1.0 Universal https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/legalcode cc0-1.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC0 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.r1s8g https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210x.12567 |
_version_ |
1766242541574815744 |