Decadal variability of tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere: natural variability or anthropogenic influence? ...

• Main Author: Loizou, Pinelopi
• Format: Text
• Language: unknown
• Published: University of Reading 2022
• Subjects: North Atlantic
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.48683/1926.00113886; https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/id/eprint/113886

Understanding which environmental processes are responsible for driving the interannual and decadal variability of tropical cyclones (TCs) is important for providing TC impact-related mitigation and planning information to the responsible agencies and business. TC activity in the northern hemisphere is examined in IBTrACS, seven recent reanalyses and coupled and atmosphere-only simulations at various resolutions from HadGEM3-GC3.1. Drivers of TC activity are examined for the current climate, on decadal time scales and in scenarios of a warming climate. Different tools, including the standard power spectrum method, the wavelets, and the Empirical Teleconnections method are utilized. TC activity in the North Atlantic (NATL), characterized by high variability, is primarily influenced on interannual and decadal time scales by the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) via warm local Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). The primary driver for TC activity in the Eastern Pacific (EPAC) and Central Pacific (CPAC) ...