Changes in number and intensity of world-wide tropical cyclones
Bayesian statistical models were developed for the number of tropical cyclones and the rate at which these cyclones became hurricanes in the North Atlantic, North and South Indian, and East and West Pacific Oceans. We find that there is small probability that the number of cyclones has increased in...
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ftdatacite:10.48550/arxiv.physics/0702131 2023-05-15T17:28:30+02:00 Changes in number and intensity of world-wide tropical cyclones Briggs, William M 2007 https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.physics/0702131 https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0702131 unknown arXiv Assumed arXiv.org perpetual, non-exclusive license to distribute this article for submissions made before January 2004 http://arxiv.org/licenses/assumed-1991-2003/ Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability physics.data-an FOS Physical sciences Preprint Article article CreativeWork 2007 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.physics/0702131 2022-04-01T15:44:56Z Bayesian statistical models were developed for the number of tropical cyclones and the rate at which these cyclones became hurricanes in the North Atlantic, North and South Indian, and East and West Pacific Oceans. We find that there is small probability that the number of cyclones has increased in the past thirty years. The rate at which these storms become hurricanes appears to be constant. The rate at which hurricanes evolve into category 4 and higher major storms does appear to have increased. We also investigate storm intensity by measuring the distribution of individual storm lifetime in days, storm track length, and Emanuel's power dissiptation index. We find little evidence that, overall, the mean of the distribution of individual storm intensity is changing through time, but the variability of the distribution has increased. The cold tongue index and the North Atlantic oscillation index were found to be strongly associated with storm quality in the Western, and to a smaller extent, the Eastern Pacific oceans. The North Atlantic oscillation index was strongly associated with the increase in the rate of strong storms evolving. : 21 pages, 14 figures, 6 tables Report North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) Indian Pacific |
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topic |
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability physics.data-an FOS Physical sciences |
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Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability physics.data-an FOS Physical sciences Briggs, William M Changes in number and intensity of world-wide tropical cyclones |
topic_facet |
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability physics.data-an FOS Physical sciences |
description |
Bayesian statistical models were developed for the number of tropical cyclones and the rate at which these cyclones became hurricanes in the North Atlantic, North and South Indian, and East and West Pacific Oceans. We find that there is small probability that the number of cyclones has increased in the past thirty years. The rate at which these storms become hurricanes appears to be constant. The rate at which hurricanes evolve into category 4 and higher major storms does appear to have increased. We also investigate storm intensity by measuring the distribution of individual storm lifetime in days, storm track length, and Emanuel's power dissiptation index. We find little evidence that, overall, the mean of the distribution of individual storm intensity is changing through time, but the variability of the distribution has increased. The cold tongue index and the North Atlantic oscillation index were found to be strongly associated with storm quality in the Western, and to a smaller extent, the Eastern Pacific oceans. The North Atlantic oscillation index was strongly associated with the increase in the rate of strong storms evolving. : 21 pages, 14 figures, 6 tables |
format |
Report |
author |
Briggs, William M |
author_facet |
Briggs, William M |
author_sort |
Briggs, William M |
title |
Changes in number and intensity of world-wide tropical cyclones |
title_short |
Changes in number and intensity of world-wide tropical cyclones |
title_full |
Changes in number and intensity of world-wide tropical cyclones |
title_fullStr |
Changes in number and intensity of world-wide tropical cyclones |
title_full_unstemmed |
Changes in number and intensity of world-wide tropical cyclones |
title_sort |
changes in number and intensity of world-wide tropical cyclones |
publisher |
arXiv |
publishDate |
2007 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.physics/0702131 https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0702131 |
geographic |
Indian Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Indian Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_rights |
Assumed arXiv.org perpetual, non-exclusive license to distribute this article for submissions made before January 2004 http://arxiv.org/licenses/assumed-1991-2003/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.physics/0702131 |
_version_ |
1766121232067985408 |