Dangerous human-made interference with climate: A GISS modelE study
We investigate the issue of "dangerous human-made interference with climate" using simulations with GISS modelE driven by measured or estimated forcings for 1880-2003 and extended to 2100 for IPCC greenhouse gas scenarios as well as the 'alternative' scenario of Hansen and Sato....
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ftdatacite:10.48550/arxiv.physics/0610115 2023-05-15T15:06:42+02:00 Dangerous human-made interference with climate: A GISS modelE study Hansen, J. Sato, M. Ruedy, R. Kharecha, P. Lacis, A. Miller, R. Nazarenko, L. Lo, K. Schmidt, G. A. Russell, G. Aleinov, I. Bauer, S. Baum, E. Cairns, B. Canuto, V. Chandler, M. Cheng, Y. Cohen, A. Del Genio, A. Faluvegi, G. Fleming, E. Friend, A. Hall, T. Jackman, C. Jonas, J. Kelley, M. Kiang, N. Y. Koch, D. Labow, G. Lerner, J. Menon, S. Novakov, T. Oinas, V. Perlwitz, Ja. Perlwitz, Ju. Rind, D. Romanou, A. Schmunk, R. Shindell, D. Stone, P. Sun, S. Streets, D. Tausnev, N. Thresher, D. Unger, N. Yao, M. Zhang, S. 2006 https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.physics/0610115 https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0610115 unknown arXiv https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-2287-2007 Assumed arXiv.org perpetual, non-exclusive license to distribute this article for submissions made before January 2004 http://arxiv.org/licenses/assumed-1991-2003/ Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph Geophysics physics.geo-ph FOS Physical sciences article-journal Article ScholarlyArticle Text 2006 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.physics/0610115 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-2287-2007 2022-04-01T16:00:33Z We investigate the issue of "dangerous human-made interference with climate" using simulations with GISS modelE driven by measured or estimated forcings for 1880-2003 and extended to 2100 for IPCC greenhouse gas scenarios as well as the 'alternative' scenario of Hansen and Sato. Identification of 'dangerous' effects is partly subjective, but we find evidence that added global warming of more than 1 degree C above the level in 2000 has effects that may be highly disruptive. The alternative scenario, with peak added forcing ~1.5 W/m2 in 2100, keeps further global warming under 1 degree C if climate sensitivity is \~3 degrees C or less for doubled CO2. We discuss three specific sub-global topics: Arctic climate change, tropical storm intensification, and ice sheet stability. Growth of non-CO2 forcings has slowed in recent years, but CO2 emissions are now surging well above the alternative scenario. Prompt actions to slow CO2 emissions and decrease non-CO2 forcings are needed to achieve the low forcing of the alternative scenario. : 21 pages; 10 figures; to be submitted to Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Text Arctic Climate change Global warming Ice Sheet DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) Arctic |
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DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
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Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph Geophysics physics.geo-ph FOS Physical sciences |
spellingShingle |
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph Geophysics physics.geo-ph FOS Physical sciences Hansen, J. Sato, M. Ruedy, R. Kharecha, P. Lacis, A. Miller, R. Nazarenko, L. Lo, K. Schmidt, G. A. Russell, G. Aleinov, I. Bauer, S. Baum, E. Cairns, B. Canuto, V. Chandler, M. Cheng, Y. Cohen, A. Del Genio, A. Faluvegi, G. Fleming, E. Friend, A. Hall, T. Jackman, C. Jonas, J. Kelley, M. Kiang, N. Y. Koch, D. Labow, G. Lerner, J. Menon, S. Novakov, T. Oinas, V. Perlwitz, Ja. Perlwitz, Ju. Rind, D. Romanou, A. Schmunk, R. Shindell, D. Stone, P. Sun, S. Streets, D. Tausnev, N. Thresher, D. Unger, N. Yao, M. Zhang, S. Dangerous human-made interference with climate: A GISS modelE study |
topic_facet |
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph Geophysics physics.geo-ph FOS Physical sciences |
description |
We investigate the issue of "dangerous human-made interference with climate" using simulations with GISS modelE driven by measured or estimated forcings for 1880-2003 and extended to 2100 for IPCC greenhouse gas scenarios as well as the 'alternative' scenario of Hansen and Sato. Identification of 'dangerous' effects is partly subjective, but we find evidence that added global warming of more than 1 degree C above the level in 2000 has effects that may be highly disruptive. The alternative scenario, with peak added forcing ~1.5 W/m2 in 2100, keeps further global warming under 1 degree C if climate sensitivity is \~3 degrees C or less for doubled CO2. We discuss three specific sub-global topics: Arctic climate change, tropical storm intensification, and ice sheet stability. Growth of non-CO2 forcings has slowed in recent years, but CO2 emissions are now surging well above the alternative scenario. Prompt actions to slow CO2 emissions and decrease non-CO2 forcings are needed to achieve the low forcing of the alternative scenario. : 21 pages; 10 figures; to be submitted to Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
format |
Text |
author |
Hansen, J. Sato, M. Ruedy, R. Kharecha, P. Lacis, A. Miller, R. Nazarenko, L. Lo, K. Schmidt, G. A. Russell, G. Aleinov, I. Bauer, S. Baum, E. Cairns, B. Canuto, V. Chandler, M. Cheng, Y. Cohen, A. Del Genio, A. Faluvegi, G. Fleming, E. Friend, A. Hall, T. Jackman, C. Jonas, J. Kelley, M. Kiang, N. Y. Koch, D. Labow, G. Lerner, J. Menon, S. Novakov, T. Oinas, V. Perlwitz, Ja. Perlwitz, Ju. Rind, D. Romanou, A. Schmunk, R. Shindell, D. Stone, P. Sun, S. Streets, D. Tausnev, N. Thresher, D. Unger, N. Yao, M. Zhang, S. |
author_facet |
Hansen, J. Sato, M. Ruedy, R. Kharecha, P. Lacis, A. Miller, R. Nazarenko, L. Lo, K. Schmidt, G. A. Russell, G. Aleinov, I. Bauer, S. Baum, E. Cairns, B. Canuto, V. Chandler, M. Cheng, Y. Cohen, A. Del Genio, A. Faluvegi, G. Fleming, E. Friend, A. Hall, T. Jackman, C. Jonas, J. Kelley, M. Kiang, N. Y. Koch, D. Labow, G. Lerner, J. Menon, S. Novakov, T. Oinas, V. Perlwitz, Ja. Perlwitz, Ju. Rind, D. Romanou, A. Schmunk, R. Shindell, D. Stone, P. Sun, S. Streets, D. Tausnev, N. Thresher, D. Unger, N. Yao, M. Zhang, S. |
author_sort |
Hansen, J. |
title |
Dangerous human-made interference with climate: A GISS modelE study |
title_short |
Dangerous human-made interference with climate: A GISS modelE study |
title_full |
Dangerous human-made interference with climate: A GISS modelE study |
title_fullStr |
Dangerous human-made interference with climate: A GISS modelE study |
title_full_unstemmed |
Dangerous human-made interference with climate: A GISS modelE study |
title_sort |
dangerous human-made interference with climate: a giss modele study |
publisher |
arXiv |
publishDate |
2006 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.physics/0610115 https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0610115 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Global warming Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Global warming Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-2287-2007 |
op_rights |
Assumed arXiv.org perpetual, non-exclusive license to distribute this article for submissions made before January 2004 http://arxiv.org/licenses/assumed-1991-2003/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.physics/0610115 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-2287-2007 |
_version_ |
1766338264135892992 |