Optimal Transition Paths for AMOC Collapse and Recovery in a Stochastic Box Model ...
The present-day Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is considered to be in a bi-stable regime and hence it is important to determine probabilities and pathways for noise-induced transitions between its equilibrium states. Here, using Large Deviation Theory (LDT), the most probable tra...
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ftdatacite:10.48550/arxiv.2311.12734 2023-12-31T10:20:43+01:00 Optimal Transition Paths for AMOC Collapse and Recovery in a Stochastic Box Model ... Soons, Jelle Grafke, Tobias Dijkstra, Henk A. 2023 https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2311.12734 https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.12734 unknown arXiv Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode cc-by-4.0 Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph Probability math.PR FOS Physical sciences FOS Mathematics CreativeWork Preprint article Article 2023 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2311.12734 2023-12-01T11:26:24Z The present-day Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is considered to be in a bi-stable regime and hence it is important to determine probabilities and pathways for noise-induced transitions between its equilibrium states. Here, using Large Deviation Theory (LDT), the most probable transition pathways for the collapse and recovery of the AMOC are computed in a stochastic box model of the World Ocean. This allows us to determine the physical mechanisms of noise-induced AMOC transitions. We show that the most likely path of an AMOC collapse starts paradoxically with a strengthening of the AMOC followed by an immediate drop within a couple of years due to a short but relatively strong freshwater pulse. The recovery on the other hand is a slow process, where the North Atlantic needs to be gradually salinified over a course of 20 years. The proposed method provides several benefits, including an estimate of probability ratios of collapse between various freshwater noise scenarios, showing that the ... Report North Atlantic DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
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DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
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topic |
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph Probability math.PR FOS Physical sciences FOS Mathematics |
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Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph Probability math.PR FOS Physical sciences FOS Mathematics Soons, Jelle Grafke, Tobias Dijkstra, Henk A. Optimal Transition Paths for AMOC Collapse and Recovery in a Stochastic Box Model ... |
topic_facet |
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph Probability math.PR FOS Physical sciences FOS Mathematics |
description |
The present-day Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is considered to be in a bi-stable regime and hence it is important to determine probabilities and pathways for noise-induced transitions between its equilibrium states. Here, using Large Deviation Theory (LDT), the most probable transition pathways for the collapse and recovery of the AMOC are computed in a stochastic box model of the World Ocean. This allows us to determine the physical mechanisms of noise-induced AMOC transitions. We show that the most likely path of an AMOC collapse starts paradoxically with a strengthening of the AMOC followed by an immediate drop within a couple of years due to a short but relatively strong freshwater pulse. The recovery on the other hand is a slow process, where the North Atlantic needs to be gradually salinified over a course of 20 years. The proposed method provides several benefits, including an estimate of probability ratios of collapse between various freshwater noise scenarios, showing that the ... |
format |
Report |
author |
Soons, Jelle Grafke, Tobias Dijkstra, Henk A. |
author_facet |
Soons, Jelle Grafke, Tobias Dijkstra, Henk A. |
author_sort |
Soons, Jelle |
title |
Optimal Transition Paths for AMOC Collapse and Recovery in a Stochastic Box Model ... |
title_short |
Optimal Transition Paths for AMOC Collapse and Recovery in a Stochastic Box Model ... |
title_full |
Optimal Transition Paths for AMOC Collapse and Recovery in a Stochastic Box Model ... |
title_fullStr |
Optimal Transition Paths for AMOC Collapse and Recovery in a Stochastic Box Model ... |
title_full_unstemmed |
Optimal Transition Paths for AMOC Collapse and Recovery in a Stochastic Box Model ... |
title_sort |
optimal transition paths for amoc collapse and recovery in a stochastic box model ... |
publisher |
arXiv |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2311.12734 https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.12734 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_rights |
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode cc-by-4.0 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2311.12734 |
_version_ |
1786831216576561152 |