New Physics-Based Early Warning Signal shows AMOC is on Tipping Course ...
One of the most prominent climate tipping elements is the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which can potentially collapse due to the input of fresh water in the North Atlantic. Although AMOC collapses have been induced in state-of-the-art Global Climate Models (GCMs) by strong fre...
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Online Access: | https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2308.01688 https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.01688 |
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ftdatacite:10.48550/arxiv.2308.01688 2023-10-01T03:57:58+02:00 New Physics-Based Early Warning Signal shows AMOC is on Tipping Course ... van Westen, René M. Kliphuis, Michael Dijkstra, Henk A. 2023 https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2308.01688 https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.01688 unknown arXiv Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode cc-by-4.0 Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph FOS Physical sciences Preprint article Article CreativeWork 2023 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2308.01688 2023-09-04T13:09:35Z One of the most prominent climate tipping elements is the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which can potentially collapse due to the input of fresh water in the North Atlantic. Although AMOC collapses have been induced in state-of-the-art Global Climate Models (GCMs) by strong freshwater forcing, an AMOC tipping event has so far not been found. Here, we show results of the first AMOC tipping event in such a GCM, the Community Earth System Model, including the large climate impacts of the associated AMOC collapse. Using these results, we develop a new physics-based and observable early warning signal of AMOC tipping: the minimum of the AMOC induced freshwater transport at the southern boundary of the Atlantic. Available observational and reanalysis data indicate that the present-day AMOC is on route to tipping. The new early warning signal is a useful alternative to classical statistical ones which, when applied to our simulated AMOC tipping event, turn out to be sensitive to the analysed ... Report North Atlantic DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
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Open Polar |
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DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
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unknown |
topic |
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph FOS Physical sciences |
spellingShingle |
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph FOS Physical sciences van Westen, René M. Kliphuis, Michael Dijkstra, Henk A. New Physics-Based Early Warning Signal shows AMOC is on Tipping Course ... |
topic_facet |
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph FOS Physical sciences |
description |
One of the most prominent climate tipping elements is the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which can potentially collapse due to the input of fresh water in the North Atlantic. Although AMOC collapses have been induced in state-of-the-art Global Climate Models (GCMs) by strong freshwater forcing, an AMOC tipping event has so far not been found. Here, we show results of the first AMOC tipping event in such a GCM, the Community Earth System Model, including the large climate impacts of the associated AMOC collapse. Using these results, we develop a new physics-based and observable early warning signal of AMOC tipping: the minimum of the AMOC induced freshwater transport at the southern boundary of the Atlantic. Available observational and reanalysis data indicate that the present-day AMOC is on route to tipping. The new early warning signal is a useful alternative to classical statistical ones which, when applied to our simulated AMOC tipping event, turn out to be sensitive to the analysed ... |
format |
Report |
author |
van Westen, René M. Kliphuis, Michael Dijkstra, Henk A. |
author_facet |
van Westen, René M. Kliphuis, Michael Dijkstra, Henk A. |
author_sort |
van Westen, René M. |
title |
New Physics-Based Early Warning Signal shows AMOC is on Tipping Course ... |
title_short |
New Physics-Based Early Warning Signal shows AMOC is on Tipping Course ... |
title_full |
New Physics-Based Early Warning Signal shows AMOC is on Tipping Course ... |
title_fullStr |
New Physics-Based Early Warning Signal shows AMOC is on Tipping Course ... |
title_full_unstemmed |
New Physics-Based Early Warning Signal shows AMOC is on Tipping Course ... |
title_sort |
new physics-based early warning signal shows amoc is on tipping course ... |
publisher |
arXiv |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2308.01688 https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.01688 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_rights |
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode cc-by-4.0 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2308.01688 |
_version_ |
1778530257408622592 |