Dynamic Arctic weather variability and connectivity ...

• Main Authors: Meng, Jun, Fan, Jingfang, Bhatt, Uma S, Kurths, Jürgen
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: unknown
• Published: arXiv 2023
• Subjects: Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph; Chaotic Dynamics nlin.CD; Geophysics physics.geo-ph; FOS Physical sciences; Arctic; Climate change; Sea ice
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2302.01960; https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.01960

The rapidly shrinking Arctic sea ice is changing weather patterns and disrupting the balance of nature. Dynamics of Arctic weather variability (WV) plays a crucial role in weather forecasting and is closely related to extreme weather events. Yet, assessing and quantifying the WV for both local Arctic regions and its planetary impacts under anthropogenic climate change is still unknown. Here, we develop a complexity-based approach to systematically evaluate and analyze the dynamic behaviour of WV. We reveal that the WV within and around the Arctic is statistically correlated to the Arctic Oscillation at the intraseasonal time scale. We further find that the variability of the daily Arctic sea ice is increasing due to its dramatic decline under a warming climate. Unstable Arctic weather conditions can disturb regional weather patterns through atmospheric teleconnection pathways, resulting in higher risk to human activities and greater weather forecast uncertainty. A multivariate climate network analysis ...