Early-warning indicator based on autoregressive moving-average models: Critical Transitions and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
A statistical indicator for dynamic stability based on autoregressive moving-average, ARMA(p,q), models is used to gauge the stability and hence predict approaching tipping points of simulation data from a reduced 5-box model of the North-Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exposed to...
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ftdatacite:10.48550/arxiv.2203.01100 2023-05-15T16:29:42+02:00 Early-warning indicator based on autoregressive moving-average models: Critical Transitions and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Rodal, Marie Krumscheid, Sebastian Madan, Gaurav LaCasce, Joseph Henry Vercauteren, Nikki 2022 https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2203.01100 https://arxiv.org/abs/2203.01100 unknown arXiv Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode cc-by-4.0 CC-BY Applications stat.AP Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph FOS Computer and information sciences FOS Physical sciences Preprint Article article CreativeWork 2022 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2203.01100 2022-04-01T09:58:41Z A statistical indicator for dynamic stability based on autoregressive moving-average, ARMA(p,q), models is used to gauge the stability and hence predict approaching tipping points of simulation data from a reduced 5-box model of the North-Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exposed to a time dependent hosing function. The hosing function simulates the influx of fresh water due to the melting of the Greenland ice sheet and increased precipitation in the North Atlantic. We study the indicator's ability to assess the stability of a time series subject to different types of tipping, including bifurcation-induced and rate-induced tipping, and show that the indicator is indeed able to identify the different types of induced instability. In the process we extend the underlying models from an ARMA(p,q) process to an ARIMA(p,q) (autoregressive integrated moving-average) process, which through the proper application of differencing converts a formerly non-stationary process into a stationary one, further extending the regime of validity of the statistical method. In addition, we apply the indicator to simulation data from the Earth systems model CESM2, to assess how the indicator responds to more realistic time series data. : The following article has been submitted to Chaos. After it is published, it will be found at https://publishing.aip.org/resources/librarians/products/journals/ Report Greenland Ice Sheet North Atlantic DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) Greenland |
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Open Polar |
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DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
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ftdatacite |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Applications stat.AP Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph FOS Computer and information sciences FOS Physical sciences |
spellingShingle |
Applications stat.AP Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph FOS Computer and information sciences FOS Physical sciences Rodal, Marie Krumscheid, Sebastian Madan, Gaurav LaCasce, Joseph Henry Vercauteren, Nikki Early-warning indicator based on autoregressive moving-average models: Critical Transitions and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation |
topic_facet |
Applications stat.AP Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph FOS Computer and information sciences FOS Physical sciences |
description |
A statistical indicator for dynamic stability based on autoregressive moving-average, ARMA(p,q), models is used to gauge the stability and hence predict approaching tipping points of simulation data from a reduced 5-box model of the North-Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exposed to a time dependent hosing function. The hosing function simulates the influx of fresh water due to the melting of the Greenland ice sheet and increased precipitation in the North Atlantic. We study the indicator's ability to assess the stability of a time series subject to different types of tipping, including bifurcation-induced and rate-induced tipping, and show that the indicator is indeed able to identify the different types of induced instability. In the process we extend the underlying models from an ARMA(p,q) process to an ARIMA(p,q) (autoregressive integrated moving-average) process, which through the proper application of differencing converts a formerly non-stationary process into a stationary one, further extending the regime of validity of the statistical method. In addition, we apply the indicator to simulation data from the Earth systems model CESM2, to assess how the indicator responds to more realistic time series data. : The following article has been submitted to Chaos. After it is published, it will be found at https://publishing.aip.org/resources/librarians/products/journals/ |
format |
Report |
author |
Rodal, Marie Krumscheid, Sebastian Madan, Gaurav LaCasce, Joseph Henry Vercauteren, Nikki |
author_facet |
Rodal, Marie Krumscheid, Sebastian Madan, Gaurav LaCasce, Joseph Henry Vercauteren, Nikki |
author_sort |
Rodal, Marie |
title |
Early-warning indicator based on autoregressive moving-average models: Critical Transitions and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation |
title_short |
Early-warning indicator based on autoregressive moving-average models: Critical Transitions and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation |
title_full |
Early-warning indicator based on autoregressive moving-average models: Critical Transitions and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation |
title_fullStr |
Early-warning indicator based on autoregressive moving-average models: Critical Transitions and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Early-warning indicator based on autoregressive moving-average models: Critical Transitions and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation |
title_sort |
early-warning indicator based on autoregressive moving-average models: critical transitions and the atlantic meridional overturning circulation |
publisher |
arXiv |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2203.01100 https://arxiv.org/abs/2203.01100 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland Ice Sheet North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Sheet North Atlantic |
op_rights |
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode cc-by-4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2203.01100 |
_version_ |
1766019407614574592 |