On the dynamics of the contagious rate under isolation measures
The infection dynamics of a population under stationary isolation conditions is modeled. It is underlined that the stationary character of the isolation measures can be expected to imply that an effective SIR model with constant parameters should describe the infection process. Then, a derivation of...
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Online Access: | https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2110.08947 https://arxiv.org/abs/2110.08947 |
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ftdatacite:10.48550/arxiv.2110.08947 2023-05-15T16:51:58+02:00 On the dynamics of the contagious rate under isolation measures de Oca, Alejandro Cabo Montes Bizet, Nana Geraldine Cabo 2021 https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2110.08947 https://arxiv.org/abs/2110.08947 unknown arXiv Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode cc-by-4.0 CC-BY Populations and Evolution q-bio.PE Biological Physics physics.bio-ph Medical Physics physics.med-ph FOS Biological sciences FOS Physical sciences Article CreativeWork article Preprint 2021 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2110.08947 2022-03-10T13:50:05Z The infection dynamics of a population under stationary isolation conditions is modeled. It is underlined that the stationary character of the isolation measures can be expected to imply that an effective SIR model with constant parameters should describe the infection process. Then, a derivation of this property is presented, assuming that the statistical fluctuations in the number of infection and recovered cases are disregarded. This effective SIR model shows a reduced population number and a constant $β$ parameter. The effects of also including the retardation between recovery and infection process is also considered. Next, it is shown that any solution of the effective SIR also solves the linear problem to which the SIR equations reduce when the total population is much larger than the number of the infected cases. Then, it is also argued that this equivalence follows for a specific contagious parameter $β(t)$ which time dependence is analytically derived here. Then, two equivalent predictive calculational methods for the infection dynamics under stationary isolation measures are proposed. The results represent a solutions for the known and challenging problem of defining the time dependence of the contagion parameter, when the SIR parameter $N$ is assumed to be the whole population number. Finally, the model is applied to describe the known infection curves for countries that already had passed the epidemic process under strict stationary isolation measures. The cases of Iceland, New Zealand, Korea and Cuba were considered. Although, non subject to stationary isolation measures the cases of U.S.A. and Mexico are also examined due to their interest. The results support the argued validity of SIR model including retardation. : 31 pages, 8 figures Article in Journal/Newspaper Iceland DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) New Zealand |
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DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
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topic |
Populations and Evolution q-bio.PE Biological Physics physics.bio-ph Medical Physics physics.med-ph FOS Biological sciences FOS Physical sciences |
spellingShingle |
Populations and Evolution q-bio.PE Biological Physics physics.bio-ph Medical Physics physics.med-ph FOS Biological sciences FOS Physical sciences de Oca, Alejandro Cabo Montes Bizet, Nana Geraldine Cabo On the dynamics of the contagious rate under isolation measures |
topic_facet |
Populations and Evolution q-bio.PE Biological Physics physics.bio-ph Medical Physics physics.med-ph FOS Biological sciences FOS Physical sciences |
description |
The infection dynamics of a population under stationary isolation conditions is modeled. It is underlined that the stationary character of the isolation measures can be expected to imply that an effective SIR model with constant parameters should describe the infection process. Then, a derivation of this property is presented, assuming that the statistical fluctuations in the number of infection and recovered cases are disregarded. This effective SIR model shows a reduced population number and a constant $β$ parameter. The effects of also including the retardation between recovery and infection process is also considered. Next, it is shown that any solution of the effective SIR also solves the linear problem to which the SIR equations reduce when the total population is much larger than the number of the infected cases. Then, it is also argued that this equivalence follows for a specific contagious parameter $β(t)$ which time dependence is analytically derived here. Then, two equivalent predictive calculational methods for the infection dynamics under stationary isolation measures are proposed. The results represent a solutions for the known and challenging problem of defining the time dependence of the contagion parameter, when the SIR parameter $N$ is assumed to be the whole population number. Finally, the model is applied to describe the known infection curves for countries that already had passed the epidemic process under strict stationary isolation measures. The cases of Iceland, New Zealand, Korea and Cuba were considered. Although, non subject to stationary isolation measures the cases of U.S.A. and Mexico are also examined due to their interest. The results support the argued validity of SIR model including retardation. : 31 pages, 8 figures |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
de Oca, Alejandro Cabo Montes Bizet, Nana Geraldine Cabo |
author_facet |
de Oca, Alejandro Cabo Montes Bizet, Nana Geraldine Cabo |
author_sort |
de Oca, Alejandro Cabo Montes |
title |
On the dynamics of the contagious rate under isolation measures |
title_short |
On the dynamics of the contagious rate under isolation measures |
title_full |
On the dynamics of the contagious rate under isolation measures |
title_fullStr |
On the dynamics of the contagious rate under isolation measures |
title_full_unstemmed |
On the dynamics of the contagious rate under isolation measures |
title_sort |
on the dynamics of the contagious rate under isolation measures |
publisher |
arXiv |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2110.08947 https://arxiv.org/abs/2110.08947 |
geographic |
New Zealand |
geographic_facet |
New Zealand |
genre |
Iceland |
genre_facet |
Iceland |
op_rights |
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode cc-by-4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2110.08947 |
_version_ |
1766042106438090752 |