Analysis of the Evolution of Parametric Drivers of High-End Sea-Level Hazards
Climate models are critical tools for developing strategies to manage the risks posed by sea-level rise to coastal communities. While these models are necessary for understanding climate risks, there is a level of uncertainty inherent in each parameter in the models. This model parametric uncertaint...
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Online Access: | https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2106.12041 https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.12041 |
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ftdatacite:10.48550/arxiv.2106.12041 2023-05-15T13:33:32+02:00 Analysis of the Evolution of Parametric Drivers of High-End Sea-Level Hazards Hough, Alana Wong, Tony E. 2021 https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2106.12041 https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.12041 unknown arXiv Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/legalcode cc-by-nc-sa-4.0 CC-BY-NC-SA Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph Machine Learning cs.LG Geophysics physics.geo-ph FOS Physical sciences FOS Computer and information sciences Article CreativeWork article Preprint 2021 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2106.12041 2022-03-10T14:51:56Z Climate models are critical tools for developing strategies to manage the risks posed by sea-level rise to coastal communities. While these models are necessary for understanding climate risks, there is a level of uncertainty inherent in each parameter in the models. This model parametric uncertainty leads to uncertainty in future climate risks. Consequently, there is a need to understand how those parameter uncertainties impact our assessment of future climate risks and the efficacy of strategies to manage them. Here, we use random forests to examine the parametric drivers of future climate risk and how the relative importances of those drivers change over time. We find that the equilibrium climate sensitivity and a factor that scales the effect of aerosols on radiative forcing are consistently the most important climate model parametric uncertainties throughout the 2020 to 2150 interval for both low and high radiative forcing scenarios. The near-term hazards of high-end sea-level rise are driven primarily by thermal expansion, while the longer-term hazards are associated with mass loss from the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. Our results highlight the practical importance of considering time-evolving parametric uncertainties when developing strategies to manage future climate risks. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Greenland DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) Antarctic The Antarctic Greenland |
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Open Polar |
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DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
op_collection_id |
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language |
unknown |
topic |
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph Machine Learning cs.LG Geophysics physics.geo-ph FOS Physical sciences FOS Computer and information sciences |
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Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph Machine Learning cs.LG Geophysics physics.geo-ph FOS Physical sciences FOS Computer and information sciences Hough, Alana Wong, Tony E. Analysis of the Evolution of Parametric Drivers of High-End Sea-Level Hazards |
topic_facet |
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph Machine Learning cs.LG Geophysics physics.geo-ph FOS Physical sciences FOS Computer and information sciences |
description |
Climate models are critical tools for developing strategies to manage the risks posed by sea-level rise to coastal communities. While these models are necessary for understanding climate risks, there is a level of uncertainty inherent in each parameter in the models. This model parametric uncertainty leads to uncertainty in future climate risks. Consequently, there is a need to understand how those parameter uncertainties impact our assessment of future climate risks and the efficacy of strategies to manage them. Here, we use random forests to examine the parametric drivers of future climate risk and how the relative importances of those drivers change over time. We find that the equilibrium climate sensitivity and a factor that scales the effect of aerosols on radiative forcing are consistently the most important climate model parametric uncertainties throughout the 2020 to 2150 interval for both low and high radiative forcing scenarios. The near-term hazards of high-end sea-level rise are driven primarily by thermal expansion, while the longer-term hazards are associated with mass loss from the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. Our results highlight the practical importance of considering time-evolving parametric uncertainties when developing strategies to manage future climate risks. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hough, Alana Wong, Tony E. |
author_facet |
Hough, Alana Wong, Tony E. |
author_sort |
Hough, Alana |
title |
Analysis of the Evolution of Parametric Drivers of High-End Sea-Level Hazards |
title_short |
Analysis of the Evolution of Parametric Drivers of High-End Sea-Level Hazards |
title_full |
Analysis of the Evolution of Parametric Drivers of High-End Sea-Level Hazards |
title_fullStr |
Analysis of the Evolution of Parametric Drivers of High-End Sea-Level Hazards |
title_full_unstemmed |
Analysis of the Evolution of Parametric Drivers of High-End Sea-Level Hazards |
title_sort |
analysis of the evolution of parametric drivers of high-end sea-level hazards |
publisher |
arXiv |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2106.12041 https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.12041 |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic Greenland |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Greenland |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Greenland |
op_rights |
Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial Share Alike 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/legalcode cc-by-nc-sa-4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY-NC-SA |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2106.12041 |
_version_ |
1766043151612510208 |