The Earths long-term climate changes and ice ages: a derivation of Milankovitch cycles from first principles
Long-term changes in the tilt of the Earths axis, relative to the plane of its orbit, are of great significance to long-term climate change, because they control the size of the arctic and antarctic circles. These Milankovitch cycles have generally been calculated by numerical integration of Newtons...
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ftdatacite:10.48550/arxiv.2011.03985 2023-05-15T13:53:50+02:00 The Earths long-term climate changes and ice ages: a derivation of Milankovitch cycles from first principles Rainey, R. C. T. 2020 https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2011.03985 https://arxiv.org/abs/2011.03985 unknown arXiv arXiv.org perpetual, non-exclusive license http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ Earth and Planetary Astrophysics astro-ph.EP FOS Physical sciences Article CreativeWork article Preprint 2020 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2011.03985 2022-03-10T15:19:22Z Long-term changes in the tilt of the Earths axis, relative to the plane of its orbit, are of great significance to long-term climate change, because they control the size of the arctic and antarctic circles. These Milankovitch cycles have generally been calculated by numerical integration of Newtons equations of motion, and there is some controversy over the results because they are sensitive to numerical drift over the very long computer simulations involved. In this paper the cycles are calculated from first principles, without any reliance on computer simulation. The problem is one of planetary precession, and is solvable by the methods used to study the precession of a spinning top. It is shown that the main component of Milankovitch cycles has a period of 41,000 years and is due to one of the modes of precession of the Earth-Venus system. The other mode of this system produces a component of period 29,500 years, and a third component of period 54,000 years results from the influence of the precession of the orbits of Jupiter and Saturn. These results agree closely with several of the numerical simulations in the literature, and strongly suggest that other different results in the literature are incorrect. : 24 pages, 7 figures. Conclusions revised in light of comments received, see Acknowledgements. Submitted to American Journal of Physics. Converted to LaTeX with minor corrections. Shortened version (omitting Sections III - V and Appendices) re-submitted to American Journal of Physics Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) Antarctic Arctic Jupiter ENVELOPE(101.133,101.133,-66.117,-66.117) Saturn ENVELOPE(156.040,156.040,62.067,62.067) Venus ENVELOPE(-57.842,-57.842,-61.925,-61.925) |
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DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
op_collection_id |
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language |
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topic |
Earth and Planetary Astrophysics astro-ph.EP FOS Physical sciences |
spellingShingle |
Earth and Planetary Astrophysics astro-ph.EP FOS Physical sciences Rainey, R. C. T. The Earths long-term climate changes and ice ages: a derivation of Milankovitch cycles from first principles |
topic_facet |
Earth and Planetary Astrophysics astro-ph.EP FOS Physical sciences |
description |
Long-term changes in the tilt of the Earths axis, relative to the plane of its orbit, are of great significance to long-term climate change, because they control the size of the arctic and antarctic circles. These Milankovitch cycles have generally been calculated by numerical integration of Newtons equations of motion, and there is some controversy over the results because they are sensitive to numerical drift over the very long computer simulations involved. In this paper the cycles are calculated from first principles, without any reliance on computer simulation. The problem is one of planetary precession, and is solvable by the methods used to study the precession of a spinning top. It is shown that the main component of Milankovitch cycles has a period of 41,000 years and is due to one of the modes of precession of the Earth-Venus system. The other mode of this system produces a component of period 29,500 years, and a third component of period 54,000 years results from the influence of the precession of the orbits of Jupiter and Saturn. These results agree closely with several of the numerical simulations in the literature, and strongly suggest that other different results in the literature are incorrect. : 24 pages, 7 figures. Conclusions revised in light of comments received, see Acknowledgements. Submitted to American Journal of Physics. Converted to LaTeX with minor corrections. Shortened version (omitting Sections III - V and Appendices) re-submitted to American Journal of Physics |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Rainey, R. C. T. |
author_facet |
Rainey, R. C. T. |
author_sort |
Rainey, R. C. T. |
title |
The Earths long-term climate changes and ice ages: a derivation of Milankovitch cycles from first principles |
title_short |
The Earths long-term climate changes and ice ages: a derivation of Milankovitch cycles from first principles |
title_full |
The Earths long-term climate changes and ice ages: a derivation of Milankovitch cycles from first principles |
title_fullStr |
The Earths long-term climate changes and ice ages: a derivation of Milankovitch cycles from first principles |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Earths long-term climate changes and ice ages: a derivation of Milankovitch cycles from first principles |
title_sort |
earths long-term climate changes and ice ages: a derivation of milankovitch cycles from first principles |
publisher |
arXiv |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2011.03985 https://arxiv.org/abs/2011.03985 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(101.133,101.133,-66.117,-66.117) ENVELOPE(156.040,156.040,62.067,62.067) ENVELOPE(-57.842,-57.842,-61.925,-61.925) |
geographic |
Antarctic Arctic Jupiter Saturn Venus |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Arctic Jupiter Saturn Venus |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change |
op_rights |
arXiv.org perpetual, non-exclusive license http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2011.03985 |
_version_ |
1766259285558296576 |