Probabilistic forecasts of sea ice trajectories in the Arctic: impact of uncertainties in surface wind and ice cohesion
We study the response of the Lagrangian sea ice model neXtSIM to the uncertainty in the sea surface wind and sea ice cohesion. The ice mechanics in neXtSIM is based on a brittle-like rheological framework. The study considers short-term ensemble forecasts of the Arctic sea ice from January to April...
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Online Access: | https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2009.04881 https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.04881 |
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ftdatacite:10.48550/arxiv.2009.04881 2023-05-15T14:53:39+02:00 Probabilistic forecasts of sea ice trajectories in the Arctic: impact of uncertainties in surface wind and ice cohesion Cheng, Sukun Aydoğdu, Ali Rampal, Pierre Carrassi, Alberto Bertino, Laurent 2020 https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2009.04881 https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.04881 unknown arXiv arXiv.org perpetual, non-exclusive license http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph FOS Physical sciences Article CreativeWork article Preprint 2020 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2009.04881 2022-03-10T15:18:57Z We study the response of the Lagrangian sea ice model neXtSIM to the uncertainty in the sea surface wind and sea ice cohesion. The ice mechanics in neXtSIM is based on a brittle-like rheological framework. The study considers short-term ensemble forecasts of the Arctic sea ice from January to April 2008. Ensembles are generated by perturbing the wind inputs and ice cohesion field both separately and jointly. The resulting uncertainty in the probabilistic forecasts is evaluated statistically based on the analysis of Lagrangian sea ice trajectories as sampled by virtual drifters seeded in the model to cover the Arctic Ocean and using metrics borrowed from the search-and-rescue literature. The comparison among the different ensembles indicates that wind perturbations dominate the forecast uncertainty i.e. the absolute spread of the ensemble, while the inhomogeneities in the ice cohesion field significantly increase the degree of anisotropy in the spread i.e. trajectories drift differently in different directions. We suggest that in order to get a full flavor of uncertainties in a sea ice model with brittle-like rheologies, to predict sea ice drift and trajectories, one should consider using ensemble-based simulations where both wind forcing and sea ice cohesion are perturbed. : 18 pages, 10 figures Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) Arctic Arctic Ocean |
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Open Polar |
collection |
DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
op_collection_id |
ftdatacite |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph FOS Physical sciences |
spellingShingle |
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph FOS Physical sciences Cheng, Sukun Aydoğdu, Ali Rampal, Pierre Carrassi, Alberto Bertino, Laurent Probabilistic forecasts of sea ice trajectories in the Arctic: impact of uncertainties in surface wind and ice cohesion |
topic_facet |
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph FOS Physical sciences |
description |
We study the response of the Lagrangian sea ice model neXtSIM to the uncertainty in the sea surface wind and sea ice cohesion. The ice mechanics in neXtSIM is based on a brittle-like rheological framework. The study considers short-term ensemble forecasts of the Arctic sea ice from January to April 2008. Ensembles are generated by perturbing the wind inputs and ice cohesion field both separately and jointly. The resulting uncertainty in the probabilistic forecasts is evaluated statistically based on the analysis of Lagrangian sea ice trajectories as sampled by virtual drifters seeded in the model to cover the Arctic Ocean and using metrics borrowed from the search-and-rescue literature. The comparison among the different ensembles indicates that wind perturbations dominate the forecast uncertainty i.e. the absolute spread of the ensemble, while the inhomogeneities in the ice cohesion field significantly increase the degree of anisotropy in the spread i.e. trajectories drift differently in different directions. We suggest that in order to get a full flavor of uncertainties in a sea ice model with brittle-like rheologies, to predict sea ice drift and trajectories, one should consider using ensemble-based simulations where both wind forcing and sea ice cohesion are perturbed. : 18 pages, 10 figures |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Cheng, Sukun Aydoğdu, Ali Rampal, Pierre Carrassi, Alberto Bertino, Laurent |
author_facet |
Cheng, Sukun Aydoğdu, Ali Rampal, Pierre Carrassi, Alberto Bertino, Laurent |
author_sort |
Cheng, Sukun |
title |
Probabilistic forecasts of sea ice trajectories in the Arctic: impact of uncertainties in surface wind and ice cohesion |
title_short |
Probabilistic forecasts of sea ice trajectories in the Arctic: impact of uncertainties in surface wind and ice cohesion |
title_full |
Probabilistic forecasts of sea ice trajectories in the Arctic: impact of uncertainties in surface wind and ice cohesion |
title_fullStr |
Probabilistic forecasts of sea ice trajectories in the Arctic: impact of uncertainties in surface wind and ice cohesion |
title_full_unstemmed |
Probabilistic forecasts of sea ice trajectories in the Arctic: impact of uncertainties in surface wind and ice cohesion |
title_sort |
probabilistic forecasts of sea ice trajectories in the arctic: impact of uncertainties in surface wind and ice cohesion |
publisher |
arXiv |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2009.04881 https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.04881 |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice |
op_rights |
arXiv.org perpetual, non-exclusive license http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2009.04881 |
_version_ |
1766325246178099200 |