Anomalous atmospheric circulation favored the spread of COVID-19 in Europe

• Main Authors: Sanchez-Lorenzo, Arturo, Vaquero-Martínez, Javier, Calbó, Josep, Wild, Martin, Santurtún, Ana, Lopez-Bustins, Joan-A., Vaquero, Jose-M., Folini, Doris, Antón, Manuel
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: unknown
• Published: arXiv 2020
• Subjects: Populations and Evolution q-bio.PE; Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph; FOS Biological sciences; FOS Physical sciences; Arctic; North Atlantic
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2004.12503; https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.12503

The current pandemic caused by the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 is having negative health, social and economic consequences worldwide. In Europe, the pandemic started to develop strongly at the end of February and beginning of March 2020. It has subsequently spread over the continent, with special virulence in northern Italy and inland Spain. In this study we show that an unusual persistent anticyclonic situation prevailing in southwestern Europe during February 2020 (i.e. anomalously strong positive phase of the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations) could have resulted in favorable conditions, in terms of air temperature and humidity, in Italy and Spain for a quicker spread of the virus compared with the rest of the European countries. It seems plausible that the strong atmospheric stability and associated dry conditions that dominated in these regions may have favored the virus's propagation, by short-range droplet transmission as well as likely by long-range aerosol (airborne) transmission. : 22 pages, 4 figures, Supplementary Information with 8 figures