Large-scale modelling and forecasting of ambulance calls in northern Sweden using spatio-temporal log-Gaussian Cox processes
Although ambulance call data typically come in the form of spatio-temporal point patterns, point process-based modelling approaches presented in the literature are scarce. In this paper, we study a unique set of Swedish spatio-temporal ambulance call data, which consist of the spatial (GPS) location...
Main Authors: | , , , |
---|---|
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | unknown |
Published: |
arXiv
2020
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2004.08416 https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.08416 |
id |
ftdatacite:10.48550/arxiv.2004.08416 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdatacite:10.48550/arxiv.2004.08416 2023-05-15T17:44:57+02:00 Large-scale modelling and forecasting of ambulance calls in northern Sweden using spatio-temporal log-Gaussian Cox processes Bayisa, Fekadu L. Ådahl, Markus Rydén, Patrik Cronie, Ottmar 2020 https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2004.08416 https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.08416 unknown arXiv arXiv.org perpetual, non-exclusive license http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ Applications stat.AP Methodology stat.ME FOS Computer and information sciences Article CreativeWork article Preprint 2020 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2004.08416 2022-03-10T16:15:06Z Although ambulance call data typically come in the form of spatio-temporal point patterns, point process-based modelling approaches presented in the literature are scarce. In this paper, we study a unique set of Swedish spatio-temporal ambulance call data, which consist of the spatial (GPS) locations of the calls (within the four northernmost regions of Sweden) and the associated days of occurrence of the calls (January 1, 2014, to December 31, 2018). Motivated by the nature of the data, we here employ log-Gaussian Cox processes (LGCPs) for the spatio-temporal modelling and forecasting of the calls. To this end, we propose a K-means clustering based bandwidth selection method for the kernel estimation of the spatial component of the separable spatio-temporal intensity function. The temporal component of the intensity function is modelled using Poisson regression, using different calendar covariates, and the spatio-temporal random field component of the random intensity of the LGCP is fitted using the Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithm. Spatial hot-spots have been found in the south-eastern part of the study region, where most people in the region live and our fitted model/forecasts manage to capture this behavior quite well. Also, there is a significant association between the expected number of calls and the day-of-the-week and the season-of-the-year. A non-parametric second-order analysis indicates that LGCPs seem to be reasonable models for the data. Finally, we find that the fitted forecasts generate simulated future spatial event patterns that quite well resemble the actual future data. Article in Journal/Newspaper Northern Sweden DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
op_collection_id |
ftdatacite |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Applications stat.AP Methodology stat.ME FOS Computer and information sciences |
spellingShingle |
Applications stat.AP Methodology stat.ME FOS Computer and information sciences Bayisa, Fekadu L. Ådahl, Markus Rydén, Patrik Cronie, Ottmar Large-scale modelling and forecasting of ambulance calls in northern Sweden using spatio-temporal log-Gaussian Cox processes |
topic_facet |
Applications stat.AP Methodology stat.ME FOS Computer and information sciences |
description |
Although ambulance call data typically come in the form of spatio-temporal point patterns, point process-based modelling approaches presented in the literature are scarce. In this paper, we study a unique set of Swedish spatio-temporal ambulance call data, which consist of the spatial (GPS) locations of the calls (within the four northernmost regions of Sweden) and the associated days of occurrence of the calls (January 1, 2014, to December 31, 2018). Motivated by the nature of the data, we here employ log-Gaussian Cox processes (LGCPs) for the spatio-temporal modelling and forecasting of the calls. To this end, we propose a K-means clustering based bandwidth selection method for the kernel estimation of the spatial component of the separable spatio-temporal intensity function. The temporal component of the intensity function is modelled using Poisson regression, using different calendar covariates, and the spatio-temporal random field component of the random intensity of the LGCP is fitted using the Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithm. Spatial hot-spots have been found in the south-eastern part of the study region, where most people in the region live and our fitted model/forecasts manage to capture this behavior quite well. Also, there is a significant association between the expected number of calls and the day-of-the-week and the season-of-the-year. A non-parametric second-order analysis indicates that LGCPs seem to be reasonable models for the data. Finally, we find that the fitted forecasts generate simulated future spatial event patterns that quite well resemble the actual future data. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bayisa, Fekadu L. Ådahl, Markus Rydén, Patrik Cronie, Ottmar |
author_facet |
Bayisa, Fekadu L. Ådahl, Markus Rydén, Patrik Cronie, Ottmar |
author_sort |
Bayisa, Fekadu L. |
title |
Large-scale modelling and forecasting of ambulance calls in northern Sweden using spatio-temporal log-Gaussian Cox processes |
title_short |
Large-scale modelling and forecasting of ambulance calls in northern Sweden using spatio-temporal log-Gaussian Cox processes |
title_full |
Large-scale modelling and forecasting of ambulance calls in northern Sweden using spatio-temporal log-Gaussian Cox processes |
title_fullStr |
Large-scale modelling and forecasting of ambulance calls in northern Sweden using spatio-temporal log-Gaussian Cox processes |
title_full_unstemmed |
Large-scale modelling and forecasting of ambulance calls in northern Sweden using spatio-temporal log-Gaussian Cox processes |
title_sort |
large-scale modelling and forecasting of ambulance calls in northern sweden using spatio-temporal log-gaussian cox processes |
publisher |
arXiv |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2004.08416 https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.08416 |
genre |
Northern Sweden |
genre_facet |
Northern Sweden |
op_rights |
arXiv.org perpetual, non-exclusive license http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2004.08416 |
_version_ |
1766147261636542464 |