Eurasian cooling in response to Arctic sea-ice loss is not proved by maximum covariance analysis
The extent to which the ongoing decline in Arctic sea ice affects mid-latitude climate has received great attention and polarised opinions. The basic issue is whether the inter-annual variability in Arctic sea ice is the cause of, or the response to, variability in mid-latitude atmospheric circulati...
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Online Access: | https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1911.10777 https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.10777 |
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ftdatacite:10.48550/arxiv.1911.10777 2023-05-15T14:50:50+02:00 Eurasian cooling in response to Arctic sea-ice loss is not proved by maximum covariance analysis Zappa, Giuseppe Shepherd, Theodore G. Ceppi, Paulo 2019 https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1911.10777 https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.10777 unknown arXiv arXiv.org perpetual, non-exclusive license http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph FOS Physical sciences Article CreativeWork article Preprint 2019 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1911.10777 2022-03-10T16:26:40Z The extent to which the ongoing decline in Arctic sea ice affects mid-latitude climate has received great attention and polarised opinions. The basic issue is whether the inter-annual variability in Arctic sea ice is the cause of, or the response to, variability in mid-latitude atmospheric circulation. A recent paper by Mori et al. (M19) claims to have reconciled previous conflicting studies by showing that a consistent mid-latitude climate response to inter-annual sea-ice anomalies can be identified in both the ERA-Interim reanalysis, taken as observations, and in an ensemble of atmosphere-only (AMIP) climate model simulations. We here demonstrate that such a conclusion cannot be drawn, due to issues with the interpretation of the maximum covariance analysis performed. After applying the M19 approach to the output from a simple statistical model, we conclude that a predominant atmospheric forcing of the sea-ice variability, rather than the converse, is the most plausible explanation of the results presented in M19. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Sea ice DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) Arctic |
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Open Polar |
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DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
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language |
unknown |
topic |
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph FOS Physical sciences |
spellingShingle |
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph FOS Physical sciences Zappa, Giuseppe Shepherd, Theodore G. Ceppi, Paulo Eurasian cooling in response to Arctic sea-ice loss is not proved by maximum covariance analysis |
topic_facet |
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph FOS Physical sciences |
description |
The extent to which the ongoing decline in Arctic sea ice affects mid-latitude climate has received great attention and polarised opinions. The basic issue is whether the inter-annual variability in Arctic sea ice is the cause of, or the response to, variability in mid-latitude atmospheric circulation. A recent paper by Mori et al. (M19) claims to have reconciled previous conflicting studies by showing that a consistent mid-latitude climate response to inter-annual sea-ice anomalies can be identified in both the ERA-Interim reanalysis, taken as observations, and in an ensemble of atmosphere-only (AMIP) climate model simulations. We here demonstrate that such a conclusion cannot be drawn, due to issues with the interpretation of the maximum covariance analysis performed. After applying the M19 approach to the output from a simple statistical model, we conclude that a predominant atmospheric forcing of the sea-ice variability, rather than the converse, is the most plausible explanation of the results presented in M19. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Zappa, Giuseppe Shepherd, Theodore G. Ceppi, Paulo |
author_facet |
Zappa, Giuseppe Shepherd, Theodore G. Ceppi, Paulo |
author_sort |
Zappa, Giuseppe |
title |
Eurasian cooling in response to Arctic sea-ice loss is not proved by maximum covariance analysis |
title_short |
Eurasian cooling in response to Arctic sea-ice loss is not proved by maximum covariance analysis |
title_full |
Eurasian cooling in response to Arctic sea-ice loss is not proved by maximum covariance analysis |
title_fullStr |
Eurasian cooling in response to Arctic sea-ice loss is not proved by maximum covariance analysis |
title_full_unstemmed |
Eurasian cooling in response to Arctic sea-ice loss is not proved by maximum covariance analysis |
title_sort |
eurasian cooling in response to arctic sea-ice loss is not proved by maximum covariance analysis |
publisher |
arXiv |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1911.10777 https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.10777 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Sea ice |
op_rights |
arXiv.org perpetual, non-exclusive license http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1911.10777 |
_version_ |
1766321892525867008 |