Probabilistic Forecasting of the Arctic Sea Ice Edge with Contour Modeling
Sea ice, or frozen ocean water, freezes and melts every year in the Arctic. Forecasts of where sea ice will be located weeks to months in advance have become more important as the amount of sea ice declines due to climate change, for maritime planning and other uses. Typical sea ice forecasts are ma...
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ftdatacite:10.48550/arxiv.1908.09377 2023-05-15T14:57:19+02:00 Probabilistic Forecasting of the Arctic Sea Ice Edge with Contour Modeling Director, Hannah M. Raftery, Adrian E. Bitz, Cecilia M. 2019 https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1908.09377 https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.09377 unknown arXiv arXiv.org perpetual, non-exclusive license http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ Applications stat.AP FOS Computer and information sciences Article CreativeWork article Preprint 2019 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1908.09377 2022-03-10T16:33:19Z Sea ice, or frozen ocean water, freezes and melts every year in the Arctic. Forecasts of where sea ice will be located weeks to months in advance have become more important as the amount of sea ice declines due to climate change, for maritime planning and other uses. Typical sea ice forecasts are made with ensemble models, physics-based models of sea ice and the surrounding ocean and atmosphere. This paper introduces Mixture Contour Forecasting, a method to forecast sea ice probabilistically using a mixture of two distributions, one based on post-processed output from ensembles and the other on observed sea ice patterns in recent years. At short lead times, these forecasts are better calibrated than unadjusted dynamic ensemble forecasts and other statistical reference forecasts. To produce these forecasts, a statistical technique is introduced that directly models the sea ice edge contour, the boundary around the region that is ice-covered. Mixture Contour Forecasting and reference methods are evaluated for monthly sea ice forecasts for 2008-2016 at lead times ranging from 0.5-6.5 months using one of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensembles. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Sea ice DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) Arctic |
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op_collection_id |
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language |
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topic |
Applications stat.AP FOS Computer and information sciences |
spellingShingle |
Applications stat.AP FOS Computer and information sciences Director, Hannah M. Raftery, Adrian E. Bitz, Cecilia M. Probabilistic Forecasting of the Arctic Sea Ice Edge with Contour Modeling |
topic_facet |
Applications stat.AP FOS Computer and information sciences |
description |
Sea ice, or frozen ocean water, freezes and melts every year in the Arctic. Forecasts of where sea ice will be located weeks to months in advance have become more important as the amount of sea ice declines due to climate change, for maritime planning and other uses. Typical sea ice forecasts are made with ensemble models, physics-based models of sea ice and the surrounding ocean and atmosphere. This paper introduces Mixture Contour Forecasting, a method to forecast sea ice probabilistically using a mixture of two distributions, one based on post-processed output from ensembles and the other on observed sea ice patterns in recent years. At short lead times, these forecasts are better calibrated than unadjusted dynamic ensemble forecasts and other statistical reference forecasts. To produce these forecasts, a statistical technique is introduced that directly models the sea ice edge contour, the boundary around the region that is ice-covered. Mixture Contour Forecasting and reference methods are evaluated for monthly sea ice forecasts for 2008-2016 at lead times ranging from 0.5-6.5 months using one of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensembles. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Director, Hannah M. Raftery, Adrian E. Bitz, Cecilia M. |
author_facet |
Director, Hannah M. Raftery, Adrian E. Bitz, Cecilia M. |
author_sort |
Director, Hannah M. |
title |
Probabilistic Forecasting of the Arctic Sea Ice Edge with Contour Modeling |
title_short |
Probabilistic Forecasting of the Arctic Sea Ice Edge with Contour Modeling |
title_full |
Probabilistic Forecasting of the Arctic Sea Ice Edge with Contour Modeling |
title_fullStr |
Probabilistic Forecasting of the Arctic Sea Ice Edge with Contour Modeling |
title_full_unstemmed |
Probabilistic Forecasting of the Arctic Sea Ice Edge with Contour Modeling |
title_sort |
probabilistic forecasting of the arctic sea ice edge with contour modeling |
publisher |
arXiv |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1908.09377 https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.09377 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Sea ice |
op_rights |
arXiv.org perpetual, non-exclusive license http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1908.09377 |
_version_ |
1766329392942809088 |