A stochastic model for the lifecycle and track of extreme extratropical cyclones in the North Atlantic
Extratropical cyclones are large-scale weather systems which are often the source of extreme weather events in Northern Europe, often leading to mass infrastructural damage and casualties. Such systems create a local vorticity maxima which tracks across the Atlantic Ocean and from which can be deter...
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ftdatacite:10.48550/arxiv.1905.08840 2023-05-15T17:33:08+02:00 A stochastic model for the lifecycle and track of extreme extratropical cyclones in the North Atlantic Sharkey, Paul Tawn, Jonathan A. Brown, Simon J. 2019 https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1905.08840 https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.08840 unknown arXiv Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode cc-by-4.0 CC-BY Applications stat.AP FOS Computer and information sciences Article CreativeWork article Preprint 2019 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1905.08840 2022-03-10T16:48:06Z Extratropical cyclones are large-scale weather systems which are often the source of extreme weather events in Northern Europe, often leading to mass infrastructural damage and casualties. Such systems create a local vorticity maxima which tracks across the Atlantic Ocean and from which can be determined a climatology for the region. While there have been considerable advances in developing algorithms for extracting the track and evolution of cyclones from reanalysis datasets, the data record is relatively short. This justifies the need for a statistical model to represent the more extreme characteristics of these weather systems, specifically their intensity and the spatial variability in their tracks. This paper presents a novel simulation-based approach to modelling the lifecycle of extratropical cyclones in terms of both their tracks and vorticity, incorporating various aspects of cyclone evolution and movement. By drawing on methods from extreme value analysis, we can simulate more extreme storms than those observed, representing a useful tool for practitioners concerned with risk assessment with regard to these weather systems. : 24 pages Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
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DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
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topic |
Applications stat.AP FOS Computer and information sciences |
spellingShingle |
Applications stat.AP FOS Computer and information sciences Sharkey, Paul Tawn, Jonathan A. Brown, Simon J. A stochastic model for the lifecycle and track of extreme extratropical cyclones in the North Atlantic |
topic_facet |
Applications stat.AP FOS Computer and information sciences |
description |
Extratropical cyclones are large-scale weather systems which are often the source of extreme weather events in Northern Europe, often leading to mass infrastructural damage and casualties. Such systems create a local vorticity maxima which tracks across the Atlantic Ocean and from which can be determined a climatology for the region. While there have been considerable advances in developing algorithms for extracting the track and evolution of cyclones from reanalysis datasets, the data record is relatively short. This justifies the need for a statistical model to represent the more extreme characteristics of these weather systems, specifically their intensity and the spatial variability in their tracks. This paper presents a novel simulation-based approach to modelling the lifecycle of extratropical cyclones in terms of both their tracks and vorticity, incorporating various aspects of cyclone evolution and movement. By drawing on methods from extreme value analysis, we can simulate more extreme storms than those observed, representing a useful tool for practitioners concerned with risk assessment with regard to these weather systems. : 24 pages |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Sharkey, Paul Tawn, Jonathan A. Brown, Simon J. |
author_facet |
Sharkey, Paul Tawn, Jonathan A. Brown, Simon J. |
author_sort |
Sharkey, Paul |
title |
A stochastic model for the lifecycle and track of extreme extratropical cyclones in the North Atlantic |
title_short |
A stochastic model for the lifecycle and track of extreme extratropical cyclones in the North Atlantic |
title_full |
A stochastic model for the lifecycle and track of extreme extratropical cyclones in the North Atlantic |
title_fullStr |
A stochastic model for the lifecycle and track of extreme extratropical cyclones in the North Atlantic |
title_full_unstemmed |
A stochastic model for the lifecycle and track of extreme extratropical cyclones in the North Atlantic |
title_sort |
stochastic model for the lifecycle and track of extreme extratropical cyclones in the north atlantic |
publisher |
arXiv |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1905.08840 https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.08840 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_rights |
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode cc-by-4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1905.08840 |
_version_ |
1766131534954233856 |