Estimating seal pup production in the Greenland Sea using Bayesian hierarchical modeling
The Greenland Sea is an important breeding ground for harp and hooded seals. Estimates of the annual seal pup production are critical factors in the abundance estimation needed for management of the species. These estimates are usually based on counts from aerial photographic surveys. However, only...
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ftdatacite:10.48550/arxiv.1808.09254 2023-05-15T16:27:53+02:00 Estimating seal pup production in the Greenland Sea using Bayesian hierarchical modeling Jullum, Martin Thorarinsdottir, Thordis Bachl, Fabian E. 2018 https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1808.09254 https://arxiv.org/abs/1808.09254 unknown arXiv https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/rssc.12397 arXiv.org perpetual, non-exclusive license http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ Applications stat.AP FOS Computer and information sciences article-journal Article ScholarlyArticle Text 2018 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1808.09254 https://doi.org/10.1111/rssc.12397 2022-04-01T09:30:31Z The Greenland Sea is an important breeding ground for harp and hooded seals. Estimates of the annual seal pup production are critical factors in the abundance estimation needed for management of the species. These estimates are usually based on counts from aerial photographic surveys. However, only a minor part of the whelping region can be photographed, due to its large extent. To estimate the total seal pup production, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach motivated by viewing the seal pup appearances as a realization of a log-Gaussian Cox process using covariate information from satellite imagery as a proxy for ice thickness. For inference, we utilize the stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) module of the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) framework. In a case study using survey data from 2012, we compare our results with existing methodology in a comprehensive cross-validation study. The results of the study indicate that our method improves local estimation performance, and that the increased prediction uncertainty of our method is required to obtain calibrated count predictions. This suggests that the sampling density of the survey design may not be sufficient to obtain reliable estimates of the seal pup production. Text Greenland Greenland Sea DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) Greenland Laplace ENVELOPE(141.467,141.467,-66.782,-66.782) |
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Applications stat.AP FOS Computer and information sciences |
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Applications stat.AP FOS Computer and information sciences Jullum, Martin Thorarinsdottir, Thordis Bachl, Fabian E. Estimating seal pup production in the Greenland Sea using Bayesian hierarchical modeling |
topic_facet |
Applications stat.AP FOS Computer and information sciences |
description |
The Greenland Sea is an important breeding ground for harp and hooded seals. Estimates of the annual seal pup production are critical factors in the abundance estimation needed for management of the species. These estimates are usually based on counts from aerial photographic surveys. However, only a minor part of the whelping region can be photographed, due to its large extent. To estimate the total seal pup production, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach motivated by viewing the seal pup appearances as a realization of a log-Gaussian Cox process using covariate information from satellite imagery as a proxy for ice thickness. For inference, we utilize the stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) module of the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) framework. In a case study using survey data from 2012, we compare our results with existing methodology in a comprehensive cross-validation study. The results of the study indicate that our method improves local estimation performance, and that the increased prediction uncertainty of our method is required to obtain calibrated count predictions. This suggests that the sampling density of the survey design may not be sufficient to obtain reliable estimates of the seal pup production. |
format |
Text |
author |
Jullum, Martin Thorarinsdottir, Thordis Bachl, Fabian E. |
author_facet |
Jullum, Martin Thorarinsdottir, Thordis Bachl, Fabian E. |
author_sort |
Jullum, Martin |
title |
Estimating seal pup production in the Greenland Sea using Bayesian hierarchical modeling |
title_short |
Estimating seal pup production in the Greenland Sea using Bayesian hierarchical modeling |
title_full |
Estimating seal pup production in the Greenland Sea using Bayesian hierarchical modeling |
title_fullStr |
Estimating seal pup production in the Greenland Sea using Bayesian hierarchical modeling |
title_full_unstemmed |
Estimating seal pup production in the Greenland Sea using Bayesian hierarchical modeling |
title_sort |
estimating seal pup production in the greenland sea using bayesian hierarchical modeling |
publisher |
arXiv |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1808.09254 https://arxiv.org/abs/1808.09254 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(141.467,141.467,-66.782,-66.782) |
geographic |
Greenland Laplace |
geographic_facet |
Greenland Laplace |
genre |
Greenland Greenland Sea |
genre_facet |
Greenland Greenland Sea |
op_relation |
https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/rssc.12397 |
op_rights |
arXiv.org perpetual, non-exclusive license http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1808.09254 https://doi.org/10.1111/rssc.12397 |
_version_ |
1766017442802302976 |