On the Warming of the Southern Hemisphere since 1955 and Recent Slowing-Down: Role of Sea Ice, Sun Spot and El Nino Variability
The importance of the sea ice retreat in the polar regions for the global warming and the role of ice-albedo feedback was recognized by various authors [1,2]. Similar to a recent study of the phenomenon in the Arctic [3] we present a semi-quantitative estimate of the mechanism for the Southern Hemis...
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ftdatacite:10.48550/arxiv.1807.05676 2023-05-15T13:11:38+02:00 On the Warming of the Southern Hemisphere since 1955 and Recent Slowing-Down: Role of Sea Ice, Sun Spot and El Nino Variability Laubereau, Alfred Iglev, Hristo 2018 https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1807.05676 https://arxiv.org/abs/1807.05676 unknown arXiv arXiv.org perpetual, non-exclusive license http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ Geophysics physics.geo-ph Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph FOS Physical sciences Preprint Article article CreativeWork 2018 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1807.05676 2022-04-01T09:16:45Z The importance of the sea ice retreat in the polar regions for the global warming and the role of ice-albedo feedback was recognized by various authors [1,2]. Similar to a recent study of the phenomenon in the Arctic [3] we present a semi-quantitative estimate of the mechanism for the Southern Hemisphere (SH). Using a simple model, we estimate the contribution of ice-albedo feedback to the mean temperature increase in the SH to be 0.5 +/- 0.1 K in the years 1955 to 2015, while from the simultaneous growth of the greenhouse gases (GHG) we derive a direct warming of only 0.2 +/- 0.05 K in the same period. These numbers are in nice accordance with the reported mean temperature rise of 0.75 +/- 0.1 K of the SH in 2015 since 1955 (and relative to 1880). Our data also confirm previously noticed correlations between the annual fluctuations of solar intensity and El Nino observations on the one hand and the annual variability of the SH surface temperature on the other hand. Our calculations indicate a slowing down of the temperature increase during the past few years that is likely to persist. Assuming a continuation of the present trends for the southern sea ice and GHG concentration we predict the further temperature rise to decrease by 33 % in 2015 to 2025 as compared to the previous decade. : 17 pages, 3 figures Report albedo Arctic Global warming Sea ice DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) Arctic |
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Geophysics physics.geo-ph Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph FOS Physical sciences |
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Geophysics physics.geo-ph Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph FOS Physical sciences Laubereau, Alfred Iglev, Hristo On the Warming of the Southern Hemisphere since 1955 and Recent Slowing-Down: Role of Sea Ice, Sun Spot and El Nino Variability |
topic_facet |
Geophysics physics.geo-ph Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph FOS Physical sciences |
description |
The importance of the sea ice retreat in the polar regions for the global warming and the role of ice-albedo feedback was recognized by various authors [1,2]. Similar to a recent study of the phenomenon in the Arctic [3] we present a semi-quantitative estimate of the mechanism for the Southern Hemisphere (SH). Using a simple model, we estimate the contribution of ice-albedo feedback to the mean temperature increase in the SH to be 0.5 +/- 0.1 K in the years 1955 to 2015, while from the simultaneous growth of the greenhouse gases (GHG) we derive a direct warming of only 0.2 +/- 0.05 K in the same period. These numbers are in nice accordance with the reported mean temperature rise of 0.75 +/- 0.1 K of the SH in 2015 since 1955 (and relative to 1880). Our data also confirm previously noticed correlations between the annual fluctuations of solar intensity and El Nino observations on the one hand and the annual variability of the SH surface temperature on the other hand. Our calculations indicate a slowing down of the temperature increase during the past few years that is likely to persist. Assuming a continuation of the present trends for the southern sea ice and GHG concentration we predict the further temperature rise to decrease by 33 % in 2015 to 2025 as compared to the previous decade. : 17 pages, 3 figures |
format |
Report |
author |
Laubereau, Alfred Iglev, Hristo |
author_facet |
Laubereau, Alfred Iglev, Hristo |
author_sort |
Laubereau, Alfred |
title |
On the Warming of the Southern Hemisphere since 1955 and Recent Slowing-Down: Role of Sea Ice, Sun Spot and El Nino Variability |
title_short |
On the Warming of the Southern Hemisphere since 1955 and Recent Slowing-Down: Role of Sea Ice, Sun Spot and El Nino Variability |
title_full |
On the Warming of the Southern Hemisphere since 1955 and Recent Slowing-Down: Role of Sea Ice, Sun Spot and El Nino Variability |
title_fullStr |
On the Warming of the Southern Hemisphere since 1955 and Recent Slowing-Down: Role of Sea Ice, Sun Spot and El Nino Variability |
title_full_unstemmed |
On the Warming of the Southern Hemisphere since 1955 and Recent Slowing-Down: Role of Sea Ice, Sun Spot and El Nino Variability |
title_sort |
on the warming of the southern hemisphere since 1955 and recent slowing-down: role of sea ice, sun spot and el nino variability |
publisher |
arXiv |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1807.05676 https://arxiv.org/abs/1807.05676 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
albedo Arctic Global warming Sea ice |
genre_facet |
albedo Arctic Global warming Sea ice |
op_rights |
arXiv.org perpetual, non-exclusive license http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1807.05676 |
_version_ |
1766248287195627520 |