Deep Uncertainty Surrounding Coastal Flood Risk Projections: A Case Study for New Orleans
Future sea-level rise drives severe risks for many coastal communities. Strategies to manage these risks hinge on a sound characterization of the uncertainties. For example, recent studies suggest that large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) may rapidly disintegrate in response to rising gl...
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ftdatacite:10.48550/arxiv.1705.07722 2023-05-15T13:38:42+02:00 Deep Uncertainty Surrounding Coastal Flood Risk Projections: A Case Study for New Orleans Wong, Tony E. Keller, Klaus 2017 https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1705.07722 https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.07722 unknown arXiv https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2017ef000607 arXiv.org perpetual, non-exclusive license http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ Geophysics physics.geo-ph FOS Physical sciences article-journal Article ScholarlyArticle Text 2017 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1705.07722 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017ef000607 2022-04-01T10:53:31Z Future sea-level rise drives severe risks for many coastal communities. Strategies to manage these risks hinge on a sound characterization of the uncertainties. For example, recent studies suggest that large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) may rapidly disintegrate in response to rising global temperatures, leading to potentially several meters of sea-level rise during the next few centuries. It is deeply uncertain, for example, whether such an AIS disintegration will be triggered, how much this would increase sea-level rise, whether extreme storm surges intensify in a warming climate, or which emissions pathway future societies will choose. Here, we assess the impacts of these deep uncertainties on projected flooding probabilities for a levee ring in New Orleans, Louisiana. We use 18 scenarios, presenting probabilistic projections within each one, to sample key deeply uncertain future projections of sea-level rise, radiative forcing pathways, storm surge characterization, and contributions from rapid AIS mass loss. The implications of these deep uncertainties for projected flood risk are thus characterized by a set of 18 probability distribution functions. We use a global sensitivity analysis to assess which mechanisms contribute to uncertainty in projected flood risk over the course of a 50-year design life. In line with previous work, we find that the uncertain storm surge drives the most substantial risk, followed by general AIS dynamics, in our simple model for future flood risk for New Orleans. Text Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) Antarctic The Antarctic Orleans ENVELOPE(-60.667,-60.667,-63.950,-63.950) |
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Geophysics physics.geo-ph FOS Physical sciences |
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Geophysics physics.geo-ph FOS Physical sciences Wong, Tony E. Keller, Klaus Deep Uncertainty Surrounding Coastal Flood Risk Projections: A Case Study for New Orleans |
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Geophysics physics.geo-ph FOS Physical sciences |
description |
Future sea-level rise drives severe risks for many coastal communities. Strategies to manage these risks hinge on a sound characterization of the uncertainties. For example, recent studies suggest that large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) may rapidly disintegrate in response to rising global temperatures, leading to potentially several meters of sea-level rise during the next few centuries. It is deeply uncertain, for example, whether such an AIS disintegration will be triggered, how much this would increase sea-level rise, whether extreme storm surges intensify in a warming climate, or which emissions pathway future societies will choose. Here, we assess the impacts of these deep uncertainties on projected flooding probabilities for a levee ring in New Orleans, Louisiana. We use 18 scenarios, presenting probabilistic projections within each one, to sample key deeply uncertain future projections of sea-level rise, radiative forcing pathways, storm surge characterization, and contributions from rapid AIS mass loss. The implications of these deep uncertainties for projected flood risk are thus characterized by a set of 18 probability distribution functions. We use a global sensitivity analysis to assess which mechanisms contribute to uncertainty in projected flood risk over the course of a 50-year design life. In line with previous work, we find that the uncertain storm surge drives the most substantial risk, followed by general AIS dynamics, in our simple model for future flood risk for New Orleans. |
format |
Text |
author |
Wong, Tony E. Keller, Klaus |
author_facet |
Wong, Tony E. Keller, Klaus |
author_sort |
Wong, Tony E. |
title |
Deep Uncertainty Surrounding Coastal Flood Risk Projections: A Case Study for New Orleans |
title_short |
Deep Uncertainty Surrounding Coastal Flood Risk Projections: A Case Study for New Orleans |
title_full |
Deep Uncertainty Surrounding Coastal Flood Risk Projections: A Case Study for New Orleans |
title_fullStr |
Deep Uncertainty Surrounding Coastal Flood Risk Projections: A Case Study for New Orleans |
title_full_unstemmed |
Deep Uncertainty Surrounding Coastal Flood Risk Projections: A Case Study for New Orleans |
title_sort |
deep uncertainty surrounding coastal flood risk projections: a case study for new orleans |
publisher |
arXiv |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1705.07722 https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.07722 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-60.667,-60.667,-63.950,-63.950) |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic Orleans |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic Orleans |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2017ef000607 |
op_rights |
arXiv.org perpetual, non-exclusive license http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1705.07722 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017ef000607 |
_version_ |
1766109992981626880 |