Assessing the Impact of Retreat Mechanisms in a Simple Antarctic Ice Sheet Model Using Bayesian Calibration

The response of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) to changing climate forcings is an important driver of sea-level changes. Anthropogenic climate change may drive a sizeable AIS tipping point response with subsequent increases in coastal flooding risks. Many studies analyzing flood risks use simple mode...

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Main Authors: Ruckert, Kelsey L., Shaffer, Gary, Pollard, David, Guan, Yawen, Wong, Tony E., Forest, Chris E., Keller, Klaus
Format: Text
Language:unknown
Published: arXiv 2016
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Online Access:https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1609.06338
https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.06338
id ftdatacite:10.48550/arxiv.1609.06338
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spelling ftdatacite:10.48550/arxiv.1609.06338 2023-05-15T13:58:34+02:00 Assessing the Impact of Retreat Mechanisms in a Simple Antarctic Ice Sheet Model Using Bayesian Calibration Ruckert, Kelsey L. Shaffer, Gary Pollard, David Guan, Yawen Wong, Tony E. Forest, Chris E. Keller, Klaus 2016 https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1609.06338 https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.06338 unknown arXiv https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0170052 arXiv.org perpetual, non-exclusive license http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph FOS Physical sciences article-journal Article ScholarlyArticle Text 2016 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1609.06338 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0170052 2022-04-01T11:16:48Z The response of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) to changing climate forcings is an important driver of sea-level changes. Anthropogenic climate change may drive a sizeable AIS tipping point response with subsequent increases in coastal flooding risks. Many studies analyzing flood risks use simple models to project the future responses of AIS and its sea-level contributions. These analyses have provided important new insights, but they are often silent on the effects of potentially important processes such as Marine Ice Sheet Instability (MISI) or Marine Ice Cliff Instability (MICI). These approximations can be well justified and result in more parsimonious and transparent model structures. This raises the question of how this approximation impacts hindcasts and projections. Here, we calibrate a previously published and relatively simple AIS model, which neglects the effects of MICI and regional characteristics, using a combination of observational constraints and a Bayesian inversion method. Specifically, we approximate the effects of missing MICI by comparing our results to those from expert assessments with more realistic models and quantify the bias during the last interglacial when MICI may have been triggered. Our results suggest that the model can approximate the process of MISI and reproduce the projected median melt from some previous expert assessments in the year 2100. Yet, our mean hindcast is roughly 3/4 of the observed data during the last interglacial period and our mean projection is roughly 1/6 and 1/10 of the mean from a model accounting for MICI in the year 2100. These results suggest that missing MICI and/or regional characteristics can lead to a low-bias during warming period AIS melting and hence a potential low-bias in projected sea levels and flood risks. : v1: 16 pages, 4 figures, 7 supplementary files; v2: 15 pages, 4 figures, 7 supplementary files, corrected typos, revised title, updated according to revisions made through publication process Text Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) Antarctic The Antarctic Misi ENVELOPE(26.683,26.683,66.617,66.617)
institution Open Polar
collection DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology)
op_collection_id ftdatacite
language unknown
topic Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph
FOS Physical sciences
spellingShingle Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph
FOS Physical sciences
Ruckert, Kelsey L.
Shaffer, Gary
Pollard, David
Guan, Yawen
Wong, Tony E.
Forest, Chris E.
Keller, Klaus
Assessing the Impact of Retreat Mechanisms in a Simple Antarctic Ice Sheet Model Using Bayesian Calibration
topic_facet Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph
FOS Physical sciences
description The response of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) to changing climate forcings is an important driver of sea-level changes. Anthropogenic climate change may drive a sizeable AIS tipping point response with subsequent increases in coastal flooding risks. Many studies analyzing flood risks use simple models to project the future responses of AIS and its sea-level contributions. These analyses have provided important new insights, but they are often silent on the effects of potentially important processes such as Marine Ice Sheet Instability (MISI) or Marine Ice Cliff Instability (MICI). These approximations can be well justified and result in more parsimonious and transparent model structures. This raises the question of how this approximation impacts hindcasts and projections. Here, we calibrate a previously published and relatively simple AIS model, which neglects the effects of MICI and regional characteristics, using a combination of observational constraints and a Bayesian inversion method. Specifically, we approximate the effects of missing MICI by comparing our results to those from expert assessments with more realistic models and quantify the bias during the last interglacial when MICI may have been triggered. Our results suggest that the model can approximate the process of MISI and reproduce the projected median melt from some previous expert assessments in the year 2100. Yet, our mean hindcast is roughly 3/4 of the observed data during the last interglacial period and our mean projection is roughly 1/6 and 1/10 of the mean from a model accounting for MICI in the year 2100. These results suggest that missing MICI and/or regional characteristics can lead to a low-bias during warming period AIS melting and hence a potential low-bias in projected sea levels and flood risks. : v1: 16 pages, 4 figures, 7 supplementary files; v2: 15 pages, 4 figures, 7 supplementary files, corrected typos, revised title, updated according to revisions made through publication process
format Text
author Ruckert, Kelsey L.
Shaffer, Gary
Pollard, David
Guan, Yawen
Wong, Tony E.
Forest, Chris E.
Keller, Klaus
author_facet Ruckert, Kelsey L.
Shaffer, Gary
Pollard, David
Guan, Yawen
Wong, Tony E.
Forest, Chris E.
Keller, Klaus
author_sort Ruckert, Kelsey L.
title Assessing the Impact of Retreat Mechanisms in a Simple Antarctic Ice Sheet Model Using Bayesian Calibration
title_short Assessing the Impact of Retreat Mechanisms in a Simple Antarctic Ice Sheet Model Using Bayesian Calibration
title_full Assessing the Impact of Retreat Mechanisms in a Simple Antarctic Ice Sheet Model Using Bayesian Calibration
title_fullStr Assessing the Impact of Retreat Mechanisms in a Simple Antarctic Ice Sheet Model Using Bayesian Calibration
title_full_unstemmed Assessing the Impact of Retreat Mechanisms in a Simple Antarctic Ice Sheet Model Using Bayesian Calibration
title_sort assessing the impact of retreat mechanisms in a simple antarctic ice sheet model using bayesian calibration
publisher arXiv
publishDate 2016
url https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1609.06338
https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.06338
long_lat ENVELOPE(26.683,26.683,66.617,66.617)
geographic Antarctic
The Antarctic
Misi
geographic_facet Antarctic
The Antarctic
Misi
genre Antarc*
Antarctic
Ice Sheet
genre_facet Antarc*
Antarctic
Ice Sheet
op_relation https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0170052
op_rights arXiv.org perpetual, non-exclusive license
http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
op_doi https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1609.06338
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0170052
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