Improving Ice Sheet Model Calibration Using Paleoclimate and Modern Data
Human-induced climate change may cause significant ice volume loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). Projections of ice volume change from ice-sheet models and corresponding future sea-level rise have large uncertainties due to poorly constrained input parameters. In most future applications...
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ftdatacite:10.48550/arxiv.1510.01676 2023-05-15T13:46:05+02:00 Improving Ice Sheet Model Calibration Using Paleoclimate and Modern Data Chang, Won Haran, Murali Applegate, Patrick Pollard, David 2015 https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1510.01676 https://arxiv.org/abs/1510.01676 unknown arXiv arXiv.org perpetual, non-exclusive license http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ Applications stat.AP FOS Computer and information sciences article-journal Article ScholarlyArticle Text 2015 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1510.01676 2022-04-01T12:11:25Z Human-induced climate change may cause significant ice volume loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). Projections of ice volume change from ice-sheet models and corresponding future sea-level rise have large uncertainties due to poorly constrained input parameters. In most future applications to date, model calibration has utilized only modern or recent (decadal) observations, leaving input parameters that control the long-term behavior of WAIS largely unconstrained. Many paleo-observations are in the form of localized time series, while modern observations are non-Gaussian spatial data; combining information across these types poses non-trivial statistical challenges. Here we introduce a computationally efficient calibration approach that utilizes both modern and paleo-observations to generate better-constrained ice volume projections. Using fast emulators built upon principal component analysis and a reduced dimension calibration model, we can efficiently handle high-dimensional and non-Gaussian data. We apply our calibration approach to the PSU3D-ICE model which can realistically simulate long-term behavior of WAIS. Our results show that using paleo observations in calibration significantly reduces parametric uncertainty, resulting in sharper projections about the future state of WAIS. One benefit of using paleo observations is found to be that unrealistic simulations with overshoots in past ice retreat and projected future regrowth are eliminated. Text Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
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Applications stat.AP FOS Computer and information sciences |
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Applications stat.AP FOS Computer and information sciences Chang, Won Haran, Murali Applegate, Patrick Pollard, David Improving Ice Sheet Model Calibration Using Paleoclimate and Modern Data |
topic_facet |
Applications stat.AP FOS Computer and information sciences |
description |
Human-induced climate change may cause significant ice volume loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). Projections of ice volume change from ice-sheet models and corresponding future sea-level rise have large uncertainties due to poorly constrained input parameters. In most future applications to date, model calibration has utilized only modern or recent (decadal) observations, leaving input parameters that control the long-term behavior of WAIS largely unconstrained. Many paleo-observations are in the form of localized time series, while modern observations are non-Gaussian spatial data; combining information across these types poses non-trivial statistical challenges. Here we introduce a computationally efficient calibration approach that utilizes both modern and paleo-observations to generate better-constrained ice volume projections. Using fast emulators built upon principal component analysis and a reduced dimension calibration model, we can efficiently handle high-dimensional and non-Gaussian data. We apply our calibration approach to the PSU3D-ICE model which can realistically simulate long-term behavior of WAIS. Our results show that using paleo observations in calibration significantly reduces parametric uncertainty, resulting in sharper projections about the future state of WAIS. One benefit of using paleo observations is found to be that unrealistic simulations with overshoots in past ice retreat and projected future regrowth are eliminated. |
format |
Text |
author |
Chang, Won Haran, Murali Applegate, Patrick Pollard, David |
author_facet |
Chang, Won Haran, Murali Applegate, Patrick Pollard, David |
author_sort |
Chang, Won |
title |
Improving Ice Sheet Model Calibration Using Paleoclimate and Modern Data |
title_short |
Improving Ice Sheet Model Calibration Using Paleoclimate and Modern Data |
title_full |
Improving Ice Sheet Model Calibration Using Paleoclimate and Modern Data |
title_fullStr |
Improving Ice Sheet Model Calibration Using Paleoclimate and Modern Data |
title_full_unstemmed |
Improving Ice Sheet Model Calibration Using Paleoclimate and Modern Data |
title_sort |
improving ice sheet model calibration using paleoclimate and modern data |
publisher |
arXiv |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1510.01676 https://arxiv.org/abs/1510.01676 |
geographic |
Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
op_rights |
arXiv.org perpetual, non-exclusive license http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1510.01676 |
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1766236715666636800 |