Testing reanalysis datasets in Antarctica: Trends, persistence properties and trend significance
The reanalysis datasets provide very important sources for investigating the climate dynamics and climate changes in Antarctica. In this paper, three major reanalysis data are compared with Antarctic station data over the last 35 years: the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the Natio...
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ftdatacite:10.48550/arxiv.1506.07401 2023-05-15T13:24:24+02:00 Testing reanalysis datasets in Antarctica: Trends, persistence properties and trend significance Wang, Yang Zhou, Dong Bunde, Armin Havlin, Shlomo 2015 https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1506.07401 https://arxiv.org/abs/1506.07401 unknown arXiv https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2016jd024864 arXiv.org perpetual, non-exclusive license http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph Physics and Society physics.soc-ph FOS Physical sciences article-journal Article ScholarlyArticle Text 2015 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1506.07401 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016jd024864 2022-04-01T12:13:44Z The reanalysis datasets provide very important sources for investigating the climate dynamics and climate changes in Antarctica. In this paper, three major reanalysis data are compared with Antarctic station data over the last 35 years: the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis (NCEP1), NCEP-DOE Reanalysis 2 (NCEP2), and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim). In our assessment, we compare the linear trends, the fluctuations around the trends, the persistence properties and the significance level of warming trends in the reanalysis data with the observational ones. We find that NCEP1 and NCEP2 show spurious warming trends in all parts of Antarctica except the Peninsula, while ERA-Interim is quite reliable except at Amundsen-Scott. To investigate the persistence of the data sets, we consider the lag-1 autocorrelation $C(1)$ and the Hurst exponent. While $C(1)$ varies quite erratically in different stations, the Hurst exponent shows similar patterns all over Antarctica. Regarding the significance of the trends, NCEP1 and NCEP2 differ considerably from the observational datasets by strongly exaggerating the warming trends. In contrast, ERA-Interim gives reliable results at most stations except at Amundsen-Scott where it shows a significant cooling trend. : 8 pages, 5 figures Text Amundsen-Scott Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) Amundsen-Scott ENVELOPE(0.000,0.000,-90.000,-90.000) Antarctic |
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DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
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topic |
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph Physics and Society physics.soc-ph FOS Physical sciences |
spellingShingle |
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph Physics and Society physics.soc-ph FOS Physical sciences Wang, Yang Zhou, Dong Bunde, Armin Havlin, Shlomo Testing reanalysis datasets in Antarctica: Trends, persistence properties and trend significance |
topic_facet |
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph Physics and Society physics.soc-ph FOS Physical sciences |
description |
The reanalysis datasets provide very important sources for investigating the climate dynamics and climate changes in Antarctica. In this paper, three major reanalysis data are compared with Antarctic station data over the last 35 years: the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis (NCEP1), NCEP-DOE Reanalysis 2 (NCEP2), and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim). In our assessment, we compare the linear trends, the fluctuations around the trends, the persistence properties and the significance level of warming trends in the reanalysis data with the observational ones. We find that NCEP1 and NCEP2 show spurious warming trends in all parts of Antarctica except the Peninsula, while ERA-Interim is quite reliable except at Amundsen-Scott. To investigate the persistence of the data sets, we consider the lag-1 autocorrelation $C(1)$ and the Hurst exponent. While $C(1)$ varies quite erratically in different stations, the Hurst exponent shows similar patterns all over Antarctica. Regarding the significance of the trends, NCEP1 and NCEP2 differ considerably from the observational datasets by strongly exaggerating the warming trends. In contrast, ERA-Interim gives reliable results at most stations except at Amundsen-Scott where it shows a significant cooling trend. : 8 pages, 5 figures |
format |
Text |
author |
Wang, Yang Zhou, Dong Bunde, Armin Havlin, Shlomo |
author_facet |
Wang, Yang Zhou, Dong Bunde, Armin Havlin, Shlomo |
author_sort |
Wang, Yang |
title |
Testing reanalysis datasets in Antarctica: Trends, persistence properties and trend significance |
title_short |
Testing reanalysis datasets in Antarctica: Trends, persistence properties and trend significance |
title_full |
Testing reanalysis datasets in Antarctica: Trends, persistence properties and trend significance |
title_fullStr |
Testing reanalysis datasets in Antarctica: Trends, persistence properties and trend significance |
title_full_unstemmed |
Testing reanalysis datasets in Antarctica: Trends, persistence properties and trend significance |
title_sort |
testing reanalysis datasets in antarctica: trends, persistence properties and trend significance |
publisher |
arXiv |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1506.07401 https://arxiv.org/abs/1506.07401 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(0.000,0.000,-90.000,-90.000) |
geographic |
Amundsen-Scott Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Amundsen-Scott Antarctic |
genre |
Amundsen-Scott Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica |
genre_facet |
Amundsen-Scott Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica |
op_relation |
https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2016jd024864 |
op_rights |
arXiv.org perpetual, non-exclusive license http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1506.07401 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016jd024864 |
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1766379504811376640 |