On the choice of ingredients for a theory of the Ice Ages

"With five parameters one can fit an elephant". This provocative statement expresses the fact that when a theory has several adjustable parameters, an agreement with empirical data can be of modest value. What about a theory which contains unobserved objects? This is the subject of this pa...

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Main Authors: Baltensperger, Walter, Woelfli, Willy
Format: Report
Language:unknown
Published: arXiv 2013
Subjects:
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph
FOS Physical sciences
Dansgaard-Oeschger events
Online Access:https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1307.2741
https://arxiv.org/abs/1307.2741
id ftdatacite:10.48550/arxiv.1307.2741
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spelling ftdatacite:10.48550/arxiv.1307.2741 2023-05-15T16:00:02+02:00 On the choice of ingredients for a theory of the Ice Ages Baltensperger, Walter Woelfli, Willy 2013 https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1307.2741 https://arxiv.org/abs/1307.2741 unknown arXiv arXiv.org perpetual, non-exclusive license http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph FOS Physical sciences Preprint Article article CreativeWork 2013 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1307.2741 2022-04-01T13:11:57Z "With five parameters one can fit an elephant". This provocative statement expresses the fact that when a theory has several adjustable parameters, an agreement with empirical data can be of modest value. What about a theory which contains unobserved objects? This is the subject of this paper. It is motivated by a model of the Ice Ages of the Pleistocene, which postulates a hot planet in an extremely eccentric orbit. This object has many consequences. It is rather well defined by the requirements, that it must not be in conflict with laws of nature, nor with empirical data. It must have sufficient mass to produce a rapid geographic pole shift on Earth after a close flyby at the end of the Pleistocene, and also be small enough to disintegrate at this occasion and to evaporate during the Holocene. These requirements leave hardly any adaptable parameters. In this situation, the agreement with further data, in particular the reverse Dansgaard-Oeschger events of the Holocene, represents a significant support of this theory. : 9 pages Report Dansgaard-Oeschger events DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology)
institution Open Polar
collection DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology)
op_collection_id ftdatacite
language unknown
topic Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph
FOS Physical sciences
spellingShingle Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph
FOS Physical sciences
Baltensperger, Walter
Woelfli, Willy
On the choice of ingredients for a theory of the Ice Ages
topic_facet Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph
FOS Physical sciences
description "With five parameters one can fit an elephant". This provocative statement expresses the fact that when a theory has several adjustable parameters, an agreement with empirical data can be of modest value. What about a theory which contains unobserved objects? This is the subject of this paper. It is motivated by a model of the Ice Ages of the Pleistocene, which postulates a hot planet in an extremely eccentric orbit. This object has many consequences. It is rather well defined by the requirements, that it must not be in conflict with laws of nature, nor with empirical data. It must have sufficient mass to produce a rapid geographic pole shift on Earth after a close flyby at the end of the Pleistocene, and also be small enough to disintegrate at this occasion and to evaporate during the Holocene. These requirements leave hardly any adaptable parameters. In this situation, the agreement with further data, in particular the reverse Dansgaard-Oeschger events of the Holocene, represents a significant support of this theory. : 9 pages
format Report
author Baltensperger, Walter
Woelfli, Willy
author_facet Baltensperger, Walter
Woelfli, Willy
author_sort Baltensperger, Walter
title On the choice of ingredients for a theory of the Ice Ages
title_short On the choice of ingredients for a theory of the Ice Ages
title_full On the choice of ingredients for a theory of the Ice Ages
title_fullStr On the choice of ingredients for a theory of the Ice Ages
title_full_unstemmed On the choice of ingredients for a theory of the Ice Ages
title_sort on the choice of ingredients for a theory of the ice ages
publisher arXiv
publishDate 2013
url https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1307.2741
https://arxiv.org/abs/1307.2741
genre Dansgaard-Oeschger events
genre_facet Dansgaard-Oeschger events
op_rights arXiv.org perpetual, non-exclusive license
http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
op_doi https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1307.2741
_version_ 1766395908291821568

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