Discussion on common errors in analyzing sea level accelerations, solar trends and global warming
Errors in applying regression models and wavelet filters used to analyze geophysical signals are discussed: (1) multidecadal natural oscillations (e.g. the quasi 60-year Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)) need to be taken...
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ftdatacite:10.48550/arxiv.1305.2812 2023-05-15T17:35:16+02:00 Discussion on common errors in analyzing sea level accelerations, solar trends and global warming Scafetta, Nicola 2013 https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1305.2812 https://arxiv.org/abs/1305.2812 unknown arXiv https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/prp-1-37-2013 arXiv.org perpetual, non-exclusive license http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability physics.data-an Geophysics physics.geo-ph FOS Physical sciences article-journal Article ScholarlyArticle Text 2013 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1305.2812 https://doi.org/10.5194/prp-1-37-2013 2022-04-01T13:24:33Z Errors in applying regression models and wavelet filters used to analyze geophysical signals are discussed: (1) multidecadal natural oscillations (e.g. the quasi 60-year Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)) need to be taken into account for properly quantifying anomalous accelerations in tide gauge records such as in New York City; (2) uncertainties and multicollinearity among climate forcing functions prevent a proper evaluation of the solar contribution to the 20th century global surface temperature warming using overloaded linear regression models during the 1900-2000 period alone; (3) when periodic wavelet filters, which require that a record is pre-processed with a reflection methodology, are improperly applied to decompose non-stationary solar and climatic time series, Gibbs boundary artifacts emerge yielding misleading physical interpretations. By correcting these errors and using optimized regression models that reduce multicollinearity artifacts, I found the following results: (1) the sea level in New York City is not accelerating in an alarming way, and may increase by about 350 mm from 2000 to 2100 instead of the previously projected values varying from 1130 mm to 1550 mm estimated using the methods proposed by Sallenger et al. (2012) and Boon (2012), respectively; (2) the solar activity increase during the 20th century contributed about 50% of the 0.8 K global warming observed during the 20th century instead of only 7-10% (IPCC, 2007; Benestad and Schmidt, 2009; Lean and Rind, 2009). These findings stress the importance of natural oscillations and of the sun to properly interpret climatic changes. : 21 pages, 10 Figures Text North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) Pacific |
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Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability physics.data-an Geophysics physics.geo-ph FOS Physical sciences |
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Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability physics.data-an Geophysics physics.geo-ph FOS Physical sciences Scafetta, Nicola Discussion on common errors in analyzing sea level accelerations, solar trends and global warming |
topic_facet |
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability physics.data-an Geophysics physics.geo-ph FOS Physical sciences |
description |
Errors in applying regression models and wavelet filters used to analyze geophysical signals are discussed: (1) multidecadal natural oscillations (e.g. the quasi 60-year Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)) need to be taken into account for properly quantifying anomalous accelerations in tide gauge records such as in New York City; (2) uncertainties and multicollinearity among climate forcing functions prevent a proper evaluation of the solar contribution to the 20th century global surface temperature warming using overloaded linear regression models during the 1900-2000 period alone; (3) when periodic wavelet filters, which require that a record is pre-processed with a reflection methodology, are improperly applied to decompose non-stationary solar and climatic time series, Gibbs boundary artifacts emerge yielding misleading physical interpretations. By correcting these errors and using optimized regression models that reduce multicollinearity artifacts, I found the following results: (1) the sea level in New York City is not accelerating in an alarming way, and may increase by about 350 mm from 2000 to 2100 instead of the previously projected values varying from 1130 mm to 1550 mm estimated using the methods proposed by Sallenger et al. (2012) and Boon (2012), respectively; (2) the solar activity increase during the 20th century contributed about 50% of the 0.8 K global warming observed during the 20th century instead of only 7-10% (IPCC, 2007; Benestad and Schmidt, 2009; Lean and Rind, 2009). These findings stress the importance of natural oscillations and of the sun to properly interpret climatic changes. : 21 pages, 10 Figures |
format |
Text |
author |
Scafetta, Nicola |
author_facet |
Scafetta, Nicola |
author_sort |
Scafetta, Nicola |
title |
Discussion on common errors in analyzing sea level accelerations, solar trends and global warming |
title_short |
Discussion on common errors in analyzing sea level accelerations, solar trends and global warming |
title_full |
Discussion on common errors in analyzing sea level accelerations, solar trends and global warming |
title_fullStr |
Discussion on common errors in analyzing sea level accelerations, solar trends and global warming |
title_full_unstemmed |
Discussion on common errors in analyzing sea level accelerations, solar trends and global warming |
title_sort |
discussion on common errors in analyzing sea level accelerations, solar trends and global warming |
publisher |
arXiv |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1305.2812 https://arxiv.org/abs/1305.2812 |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/prp-1-37-2013 |
op_rights |
arXiv.org perpetual, non-exclusive license http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1305.2812 https://doi.org/10.5194/prp-1-37-2013 |
_version_ |
1766134386457051136 |