Solar activity and Svalbard temperatures
The long temperature series at Svalbard (Longyearbyen) show large variations, and a positive trend since its start in 1912. During this period solar activity has increased, as indicated by shorter solar cycles. The temperature at Svalbard is negatively correlated with the length of the solar cycle....
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ftdatacite:10.48550/arxiv.1112.3256 2023-05-15T17:08:30+02:00 Solar activity and Svalbard temperatures Solheim, Jan-Erik Stordahl, Kjell Humlum, Ole 2011 https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1112.3256 https://arxiv.org/abs/1112.3256 unknown arXiv Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/legalcode cc-by-3.0 CC-BY Earth and Planetary Astrophysics astro-ph.EP Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph FOS Physical sciences Preprint Article article CreativeWork 2011 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1112.3256 2022-04-01T13:54:13Z The long temperature series at Svalbard (Longyearbyen) show large variations, and a positive trend since its start in 1912. During this period solar activity has increased, as indicated by shorter solar cycles. The temperature at Svalbard is negatively correlated with the length of the solar cycle. The strongest negative correlation is found with lags 10-12 years. The relations between the length of a solar cycle and the mean temperature in the following cycle, is used to model Svalbard annual mean temperature, and seasonal temperature variations. Residuals from the annual and winter models show no autocorrelations on the 5 per cent level, which indicates that no additional parameters are needed to explain the temperature variations with 95 per cent significance. These models show that 60 per cent of the annual and winter temperature variations are explained by solar activity. For the spring, summer and fall temperatures autocorrelations in the residuals exists, and additional variables may contribute to the variations. These models can be applied as forecasting models. We predict an annual mean temperature decrease for Svalbard of 3.5\pm2 oC from solar cycle 23 to solar cycle 24 (2009-20) and a decrease in the winter temperature of \approx6 oC. : 14 pages, including 5 figures Report Longyearbyen Svalbard DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) Svalbard Longyearbyen |
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DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
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topic |
Earth and Planetary Astrophysics astro-ph.EP Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph FOS Physical sciences |
spellingShingle |
Earth and Planetary Astrophysics astro-ph.EP Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph FOS Physical sciences Solheim, Jan-Erik Stordahl, Kjell Humlum, Ole Solar activity and Svalbard temperatures |
topic_facet |
Earth and Planetary Astrophysics astro-ph.EP Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph FOS Physical sciences |
description |
The long temperature series at Svalbard (Longyearbyen) show large variations, and a positive trend since its start in 1912. During this period solar activity has increased, as indicated by shorter solar cycles. The temperature at Svalbard is negatively correlated with the length of the solar cycle. The strongest negative correlation is found with lags 10-12 years. The relations between the length of a solar cycle and the mean temperature in the following cycle, is used to model Svalbard annual mean temperature, and seasonal temperature variations. Residuals from the annual and winter models show no autocorrelations on the 5 per cent level, which indicates that no additional parameters are needed to explain the temperature variations with 95 per cent significance. These models show that 60 per cent of the annual and winter temperature variations are explained by solar activity. For the spring, summer and fall temperatures autocorrelations in the residuals exists, and additional variables may contribute to the variations. These models can be applied as forecasting models. We predict an annual mean temperature decrease for Svalbard of 3.5\pm2 oC from solar cycle 23 to solar cycle 24 (2009-20) and a decrease in the winter temperature of \approx6 oC. : 14 pages, including 5 figures |
format |
Report |
author |
Solheim, Jan-Erik Stordahl, Kjell Humlum, Ole |
author_facet |
Solheim, Jan-Erik Stordahl, Kjell Humlum, Ole |
author_sort |
Solheim, Jan-Erik |
title |
Solar activity and Svalbard temperatures |
title_short |
Solar activity and Svalbard temperatures |
title_full |
Solar activity and Svalbard temperatures |
title_fullStr |
Solar activity and Svalbard temperatures |
title_full_unstemmed |
Solar activity and Svalbard temperatures |
title_sort |
solar activity and svalbard temperatures |
publisher |
arXiv |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1112.3256 https://arxiv.org/abs/1112.3256 |
geographic |
Svalbard Longyearbyen |
geographic_facet |
Svalbard Longyearbyen |
genre |
Longyearbyen Svalbard |
genre_facet |
Longyearbyen Svalbard |
op_rights |
Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/legalcode cc-by-3.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1112.3256 |
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1766064272012476416 |