Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change

Paleoclimate data help us assess climate sensitivity and potential human-made climate effects. We conclude that Earth in the warmest interglacial periods of the past million years was less than 1°C warmer than in the Holocene. Polar warmth in these interglacials and in the Pliocene does not imply th...

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Main Authors: Hansen, James E., Sato, Makiko
Format: Text
Language:unknown
Published: arXiv 2011
Subjects:
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph
FOS Physical sciences
Ice Sheet
Online Access:https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1105.0968
https://arxiv.org/abs/1105.0968
id ftdatacite:10.48550/arxiv.1105.0968
record_format openpolar
spelling ftdatacite:10.48550/arxiv.1105.0968 2023-05-15T16:40:22+02:00 Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change Hansen, James E. Sato, Makiko 2011 https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1105.0968 https://arxiv.org/abs/1105.0968 unknown arXiv https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7091-0973-1_2 arXiv.org perpetual, non-exclusive license http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph FOS Physical sciences article-journal Article ScholarlyArticle Text 2011 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1105.0968 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7091-0973-1_2 2022-04-01T14:29:17Z Paleoclimate data help us assess climate sensitivity and potential human-made climate effects. We conclude that Earth in the warmest interglacial periods of the past million years was less than 1°C warmer than in the Holocene. Polar warmth in these interglacials and in the Pliocene does not imply that a substantial cushion remains between today's climate and dangerous warming, but rather that Earth is poised to experience strong amplifying polar feedbacks in response to moderate global warming. Thus goals to limit human-made warming to 2°C are not sufficient - they are prescriptions for disaster. Ice sheet disintegration is nonlinear, spurred by amplifying feedbacks. We suggest that ice sheet mass loss, if warming continues unabated, will be characterized better by a doubling time for mass loss rate than by a linear trend. Satellite gravity data, though too brief to be conclusive, are consistent with a doubling time of 10 years or less, implying the possibility of multi-meter sea level rise this century. Observed accelerating ice sheet mass loss supports our conclusion that Earth's temperature now exceeds the mean Holocene value. Rapid reduction of fossil fuel emissions is required for humanity to succeed in preserving a planet resembling the one on which civilization developed. : 32 pages, 9 figures; final version accepted for publication in "Climate Change at the Eve of the Second Decade of the Century: Inferences from Paleoclimate and Regional Aspects: Proceedings of Milutin Milankovitch 130th Anniversary Symposium" (eds. Berger, Mesinger and Sijaci) Text Ice Sheet DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology)
institution Open Polar
collection DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology)
op_collection_id ftdatacite
language unknown
topic Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph
FOS Physical sciences
spellingShingle Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph
FOS Physical sciences
Hansen, James E.
Sato, Makiko
Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change
topic_facet Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph
FOS Physical sciences
description Paleoclimate data help us assess climate sensitivity and potential human-made climate effects. We conclude that Earth in the warmest interglacial periods of the past million years was less than 1°C warmer than in the Holocene. Polar warmth in these interglacials and in the Pliocene does not imply that a substantial cushion remains between today's climate and dangerous warming, but rather that Earth is poised to experience strong amplifying polar feedbacks in response to moderate global warming. Thus goals to limit human-made warming to 2°C are not sufficient - they are prescriptions for disaster. Ice sheet disintegration is nonlinear, spurred by amplifying feedbacks. We suggest that ice sheet mass loss, if warming continues unabated, will be characterized better by a doubling time for mass loss rate than by a linear trend. Satellite gravity data, though too brief to be conclusive, are consistent with a doubling time of 10 years or less, implying the possibility of multi-meter sea level rise this century. Observed accelerating ice sheet mass loss supports our conclusion that Earth's temperature now exceeds the mean Holocene value. Rapid reduction of fossil fuel emissions is required for humanity to succeed in preserving a planet resembling the one on which civilization developed. : 32 pages, 9 figures; final version accepted for publication in "Climate Change at the Eve of the Second Decade of the Century: Inferences from Paleoclimate and Regional Aspects: Proceedings of Milutin Milankovitch 130th Anniversary Symposium" (eds. Berger, Mesinger and Sijaci)
format Text
author Hansen, James E.
Sato, Makiko
author_facet Hansen, James E.
Sato, Makiko
author_sort Hansen, James E.
title Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change
title_short Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change
title_full Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change
title_fullStr Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change
title_full_unstemmed Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change
title_sort paleoclimate implications for human-made climate change
publisher arXiv
publishDate 2011
url https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1105.0968
https://arxiv.org/abs/1105.0968
genre Ice Sheet
genre_facet Ice Sheet
op_relation https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7091-0973-1_2
op_rights arXiv.org perpetual, non-exclusive license
http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
op_doi https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1105.0968
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7091-0973-1_2
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