Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change
Paleoclimate data help us assess climate sensitivity and potential human-made climate effects. We conclude that Earth in the warmest interglacial periods of the past million years was less than 1°C warmer than in the Holocene. Polar warmth in these interglacials and in the Pliocene does not imply th...
Main Authors: | , |
---|---|
Format: | Text |
Language: | unknown |
Published: |
arXiv
2011
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1105.0968 https://arxiv.org/abs/1105.0968 |
id |
ftdatacite:10.48550/arxiv.1105.0968 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdatacite:10.48550/arxiv.1105.0968 2023-05-15T16:40:22+02:00 Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change Hansen, James E. Sato, Makiko 2011 https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1105.0968 https://arxiv.org/abs/1105.0968 unknown arXiv https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7091-0973-1_2 arXiv.org perpetual, non-exclusive license http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph FOS Physical sciences article-journal Article ScholarlyArticle Text 2011 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1105.0968 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7091-0973-1_2 2022-04-01T14:29:17Z Paleoclimate data help us assess climate sensitivity and potential human-made climate effects. We conclude that Earth in the warmest interglacial periods of the past million years was less than 1°C warmer than in the Holocene. Polar warmth in these interglacials and in the Pliocene does not imply that a substantial cushion remains between today's climate and dangerous warming, but rather that Earth is poised to experience strong amplifying polar feedbacks in response to moderate global warming. Thus goals to limit human-made warming to 2°C are not sufficient - they are prescriptions for disaster. Ice sheet disintegration is nonlinear, spurred by amplifying feedbacks. We suggest that ice sheet mass loss, if warming continues unabated, will be characterized better by a doubling time for mass loss rate than by a linear trend. Satellite gravity data, though too brief to be conclusive, are consistent with a doubling time of 10 years or less, implying the possibility of multi-meter sea level rise this century. Observed accelerating ice sheet mass loss supports our conclusion that Earth's temperature now exceeds the mean Holocene value. Rapid reduction of fossil fuel emissions is required for humanity to succeed in preserving a planet resembling the one on which civilization developed. : 32 pages, 9 figures; final version accepted for publication in "Climate Change at the Eve of the Second Decade of the Century: Inferences from Paleoclimate and Regional Aspects: Proceedings of Milutin Milankovitch 130th Anniversary Symposium" (eds. Berger, Mesinger and Sijaci) Text Ice Sheet DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
op_collection_id |
ftdatacite |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph FOS Physical sciences |
spellingShingle |
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph FOS Physical sciences Hansen, James E. Sato, Makiko Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change |
topic_facet |
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph FOS Physical sciences |
description |
Paleoclimate data help us assess climate sensitivity and potential human-made climate effects. We conclude that Earth in the warmest interglacial periods of the past million years was less than 1°C warmer than in the Holocene. Polar warmth in these interglacials and in the Pliocene does not imply that a substantial cushion remains between today's climate and dangerous warming, but rather that Earth is poised to experience strong amplifying polar feedbacks in response to moderate global warming. Thus goals to limit human-made warming to 2°C are not sufficient - they are prescriptions for disaster. Ice sheet disintegration is nonlinear, spurred by amplifying feedbacks. We suggest that ice sheet mass loss, if warming continues unabated, will be characterized better by a doubling time for mass loss rate than by a linear trend. Satellite gravity data, though too brief to be conclusive, are consistent with a doubling time of 10 years or less, implying the possibility of multi-meter sea level rise this century. Observed accelerating ice sheet mass loss supports our conclusion that Earth's temperature now exceeds the mean Holocene value. Rapid reduction of fossil fuel emissions is required for humanity to succeed in preserving a planet resembling the one on which civilization developed. : 32 pages, 9 figures; final version accepted for publication in "Climate Change at the Eve of the Second Decade of the Century: Inferences from Paleoclimate and Regional Aspects: Proceedings of Milutin Milankovitch 130th Anniversary Symposium" (eds. Berger, Mesinger and Sijaci) |
format |
Text |
author |
Hansen, James E. Sato, Makiko |
author_facet |
Hansen, James E. Sato, Makiko |
author_sort |
Hansen, James E. |
title |
Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change |
title_short |
Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change |
title_full |
Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change |
title_fullStr |
Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change |
title_sort |
paleoclimate implications for human-made climate change |
publisher |
arXiv |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1105.0968 https://arxiv.org/abs/1105.0968 |
genre |
Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7091-0973-1_2 |
op_rights |
arXiv.org perpetual, non-exclusive license http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1105.0968 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7091-0973-1_2 |
_version_ |
1766030762911465472 |