Climate tipping as a noisy bifurcation: a predictive technique
It is often known, from modelling studies, that a certain mode of climate tipping (of the oceanic thermohaline circulation, for example) is governed by an underlying fold bifurcation. For such a case we present a scheme of analysis that determines the best stochastic fit to the existing data. This p...
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ftdatacite:10.48550/arxiv.1007.1376 2023-05-15T16:39:09+02:00 Climate tipping as a noisy bifurcation: a predictive technique Thompson, J. M. T. Sieber, Jan 2010 https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1007.1376 https://arxiv.org/abs/1007.1376 unknown arXiv https://dx.doi.org/10.1093/imamat/hxq060 arXiv.org perpetual, non-exclusive license http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ Dynamical Systems math.DS Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph FOS Mathematics FOS Physical sciences article-journal Article ScholarlyArticle Text 2010 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1007.1376 https://doi.org/10.1093/imamat/hxq060 2022-04-01T14:34:22Z It is often known, from modelling studies, that a certain mode of climate tipping (of the oceanic thermohaline circulation, for example) is governed by an underlying fold bifurcation. For such a case we present a scheme of analysis that determines the best stochastic fit to the existing data. This provides the evolution rate of the effective control parameter, the variation of the stability coefficient, the path itself and its tipping point. By assessing the actual effective level of noise in the available time series, we are then able to make probability estimates of the time of tipping. This new technique is applied, first, to the output of a computer simulation for the end of greenhouse Earth about 34 million years ago when the climate tipped from a tropical state into an icehouse state with ice caps. Second, we use the algorithms to give probabilistic tipping estimates for the end of the most recent glaciation of the Earth using actual archaeological ice-core data. : minor corrections Text ice core DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
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DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
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topic |
Dynamical Systems math.DS Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph FOS Mathematics FOS Physical sciences |
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Dynamical Systems math.DS Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph FOS Mathematics FOS Physical sciences Thompson, J. M. T. Sieber, Jan Climate tipping as a noisy bifurcation: a predictive technique |
topic_facet |
Dynamical Systems math.DS Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph FOS Mathematics FOS Physical sciences |
description |
It is often known, from modelling studies, that a certain mode of climate tipping (of the oceanic thermohaline circulation, for example) is governed by an underlying fold bifurcation. For such a case we present a scheme of analysis that determines the best stochastic fit to the existing data. This provides the evolution rate of the effective control parameter, the variation of the stability coefficient, the path itself and its tipping point. By assessing the actual effective level of noise in the available time series, we are then able to make probability estimates of the time of tipping. This new technique is applied, first, to the output of a computer simulation for the end of greenhouse Earth about 34 million years ago when the climate tipped from a tropical state into an icehouse state with ice caps. Second, we use the algorithms to give probabilistic tipping estimates for the end of the most recent glaciation of the Earth using actual archaeological ice-core data. : minor corrections |
format |
Text |
author |
Thompson, J. M. T. Sieber, Jan |
author_facet |
Thompson, J. M. T. Sieber, Jan |
author_sort |
Thompson, J. M. T. |
title |
Climate tipping as a noisy bifurcation: a predictive technique |
title_short |
Climate tipping as a noisy bifurcation: a predictive technique |
title_full |
Climate tipping as a noisy bifurcation: a predictive technique |
title_fullStr |
Climate tipping as a noisy bifurcation: a predictive technique |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate tipping as a noisy bifurcation: a predictive technique |
title_sort |
climate tipping as a noisy bifurcation: a predictive technique |
publisher |
arXiv |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1007.1376 https://arxiv.org/abs/1007.1376 |
genre |
ice core |
genre_facet |
ice core |
op_relation |
https://dx.doi.org/10.1093/imamat/hxq060 |
op_rights |
arXiv.org perpetual, non-exclusive license http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1007.1376 https://doi.org/10.1093/imamat/hxq060 |
_version_ |
1766029482322296832 |