Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice
In light of the rapid recent retreat of Arctic sea ice, a number of studies have discussed the possibility of a critical threshold (or "tipping point") beyond which the ice-albedo feedback causes the ice cover to melt away in an irreversible process. The focus has typically been centered o...
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ftdatacite:10.48550/arxiv.0812.4777 2023-05-15T13:10:36+02:00 Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice Eisenman, I. Wettlaufer, J. S. 2008 https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.0812.4777 https://arxiv.org/abs/0812.4777 unknown arXiv https://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0806887106 arXiv.org perpetual, non-exclusive license http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ Geophysics physics.geo-ph Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph FOS Physical sciences article-journal Article ScholarlyArticle Text 2008 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.0812.4777 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0806887106 2022-04-01T14:57:50Z In light of the rapid recent retreat of Arctic sea ice, a number of studies have discussed the possibility of a critical threshold (or "tipping point") beyond which the ice-albedo feedback causes the ice cover to melt away in an irreversible process. The focus has typically been centered on the annual minimum (September) ice cover, which is often seen as particularly susceptible to destabilization by the ice-albedo feedback. Here we examine the central physical processes associated with the transition from ice-covered to ice-free Arctic Ocean conditions. We show that while the ice-albedo feedback promotes the existence of multiple ice cover states, the stabilizing thermodynamic effects of sea ice mitigate this when the Arctic Ocean is ice-covered during a sufficiently large fraction of the year. These results suggest that critical threshold behavior is unlikely during the approach from current perennial sea ice conditions to seasonally ice-free conditions. In a further warmed climate, however, we find that a critical threshold associated with the sudden loss of the remaining wintertime-only sea ice cover may be likely. : 11 pages with 8 figures, includes Article plus Supporting Information in a single file Text albedo Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) Arctic Arctic Ocean |
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Open Polar |
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DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
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language |
unknown |
topic |
Geophysics physics.geo-ph Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph FOS Physical sciences |
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Geophysics physics.geo-ph Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph FOS Physical sciences Eisenman, I. Wettlaufer, J. S. Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice |
topic_facet |
Geophysics physics.geo-ph Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph FOS Physical sciences |
description |
In light of the rapid recent retreat of Arctic sea ice, a number of studies have discussed the possibility of a critical threshold (or "tipping point") beyond which the ice-albedo feedback causes the ice cover to melt away in an irreversible process. The focus has typically been centered on the annual minimum (September) ice cover, which is often seen as particularly susceptible to destabilization by the ice-albedo feedback. Here we examine the central physical processes associated with the transition from ice-covered to ice-free Arctic Ocean conditions. We show that while the ice-albedo feedback promotes the existence of multiple ice cover states, the stabilizing thermodynamic effects of sea ice mitigate this when the Arctic Ocean is ice-covered during a sufficiently large fraction of the year. These results suggest that critical threshold behavior is unlikely during the approach from current perennial sea ice conditions to seasonally ice-free conditions. In a further warmed climate, however, we find that a critical threshold associated with the sudden loss of the remaining wintertime-only sea ice cover may be likely. : 11 pages with 8 figures, includes Article plus Supporting Information in a single file |
format |
Text |
author |
Eisenman, I. Wettlaufer, J. S. |
author_facet |
Eisenman, I. Wettlaufer, J. S. |
author_sort |
Eisenman, I. |
title |
Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice |
title_short |
Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice |
title_full |
Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice |
title_fullStr |
Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice |
title_full_unstemmed |
Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice |
title_sort |
nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of arctic sea ice |
publisher |
arXiv |
publishDate |
2008 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.0812.4777 https://arxiv.org/abs/0812.4777 |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre |
albedo Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice |
genre_facet |
albedo Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice |
op_relation |
https://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0806887106 |
op_rights |
arXiv.org perpetual, non-exclusive license http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.0812.4777 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0806887106 |
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1766235813331337216 |