A simple conceptual model of abrupt glacial climate events
Here we use a very simple conceptual model in an attempt to reduce essential parts of the complex nonlinearity of abrupt glacial climate changes (the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger events) to a few simple principles, namely (i) a threshold process, (ii) an overshooting in the stability of the system a...
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ftdatacite:10.48550/arxiv.0803.4429 2023-05-15T15:59:59+02:00 A simple conceptual model of abrupt glacial climate events Braun, H. Ganopolski, A. Christl, M. Chialvo, D. R. 2008 https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.0803.4429 https://arxiv.org/abs/0803.4429 unknown arXiv https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/npg-14-709-2007 Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/legalcode cc-by-3.0 CC-BY Geophysics physics.geo-ph Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph FOS Physical sciences article-journal Article ScholarlyArticle Text 2008 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.0803.4429 https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-14-709-2007 2022-04-01T15:50:52Z Here we use a very simple conceptual model in an attempt to reduce essential parts of the complex nonlinearity of abrupt glacial climate changes (the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger events) to a few simple principles, namely (i) a threshold process, (ii) an overshooting in the stability of the system and (iii) a millennial-scale relaxation. By comparison with a so-called Earth system model of intermediate complexity (CLIMBER-2), in which the events represent oscillations between two climate states corresponding to two fundamentally different modes of deep-water formation in the North Atlantic, we demonstrate that the conceptual model captures fundamental aspects of the nonlinearity of the events in that model. We use the conceptual model in order to reproduce and reanalyse nonlinear resonance mechanisms that were already suggested in order to explain the characteristic time scale of Dansgaard-Oeschger events. In doing so we identify a new form of stochastic resonance (i.e. an overshooting stochastic resonance) and provide the first explicitly reported manifestation of ghost resonance in a geosystem, i.e. of a mechanism which could be relevant for other systems with thresholds and with multiple states of operation. Our work enables us to explicitly simulate realistic probability measures of Dansgaard-Oeschger events (e.g. waiting time distributions, which are a prerequisite for statistical analyses on the regularity of the events by means of Monte-Carlo simulations). We thus think that our study is an important advance in order to develop more adequate methods to test the statistical significance and the origin of the proposed glacial 1470-year climate cycle. Text Dansgaard-Oeschger events North Atlantic DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
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Open Polar |
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DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
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topic |
Geophysics physics.geo-ph Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph FOS Physical sciences |
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Geophysics physics.geo-ph Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph FOS Physical sciences Braun, H. Ganopolski, A. Christl, M. Chialvo, D. R. A simple conceptual model of abrupt glacial climate events |
topic_facet |
Geophysics physics.geo-ph Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph FOS Physical sciences |
description |
Here we use a very simple conceptual model in an attempt to reduce essential parts of the complex nonlinearity of abrupt glacial climate changes (the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger events) to a few simple principles, namely (i) a threshold process, (ii) an overshooting in the stability of the system and (iii) a millennial-scale relaxation. By comparison with a so-called Earth system model of intermediate complexity (CLIMBER-2), in which the events represent oscillations between two climate states corresponding to two fundamentally different modes of deep-water formation in the North Atlantic, we demonstrate that the conceptual model captures fundamental aspects of the nonlinearity of the events in that model. We use the conceptual model in order to reproduce and reanalyse nonlinear resonance mechanisms that were already suggested in order to explain the characteristic time scale of Dansgaard-Oeschger events. In doing so we identify a new form of stochastic resonance (i.e. an overshooting stochastic resonance) and provide the first explicitly reported manifestation of ghost resonance in a geosystem, i.e. of a mechanism which could be relevant for other systems with thresholds and with multiple states of operation. Our work enables us to explicitly simulate realistic probability measures of Dansgaard-Oeschger events (e.g. waiting time distributions, which are a prerequisite for statistical analyses on the regularity of the events by means of Monte-Carlo simulations). We thus think that our study is an important advance in order to develop more adequate methods to test the statistical significance and the origin of the proposed glacial 1470-year climate cycle. |
format |
Text |
author |
Braun, H. Ganopolski, A. Christl, M. Chialvo, D. R. |
author_facet |
Braun, H. Ganopolski, A. Christl, M. Chialvo, D. R. |
author_sort |
Braun, H. |
title |
A simple conceptual model of abrupt glacial climate events |
title_short |
A simple conceptual model of abrupt glacial climate events |
title_full |
A simple conceptual model of abrupt glacial climate events |
title_fullStr |
A simple conceptual model of abrupt glacial climate events |
title_full_unstemmed |
A simple conceptual model of abrupt glacial climate events |
title_sort |
simple conceptual model of abrupt glacial climate events |
publisher |
arXiv |
publishDate |
2008 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.0803.4429 https://arxiv.org/abs/0803.4429 |
genre |
Dansgaard-Oeschger events North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Dansgaard-Oeschger events North Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/npg-14-709-2007 |
op_rights |
Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/legalcode cc-by-3.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.0803.4429 https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-14-709-2007 |
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1766395866782892032 |