Climate mitigation halts penguin extinction due to projected sea ice loss.

• Main Authors: 3rd World Seabird Conference 2021, jenouvrier, stephanie
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: unknown
• Published: Underline Science Inc. 2021
• Subjects: Ecology; FOS Biological sciences; Ecosystem; Ornithology; Antarctic; The Antarctic; Mont Blanc; Antarc*; Antarctica; Emperor penguins; Sea ice
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.48448/vw6b-q843; https://underline.io/lecture/34861-climate-mitigation-halts-penguin-extinction-due-to-projected-sea-ice-loss.

Abstract: Emperor penguins are iconic examples of a species threatened by future climate change. Projections indicate that most breeding colonies will be endangered by 2100 under "business as usual" emissions scenarios, resulting in dramatic declines in the global population size even under optimistic dispersal scenarios. These declines occur through projected loss of Antarctic sea ice, to which the Emperor penguin life cycle is closely tied. Emperor penguins directly rely on seasonally stable sea ice as a breeding platform during the Antarctic winter and throughout the spring chick-rearing period. During the non-breeding season, sea ice serves as a platform from which they feed, molt, and seek refuge from predators. The Paris Agreement is a multinational initiative to combat climate change by keeping a global temperature increase in this century to 2C above pre-industrial levels while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5C. Here, we project the dynamics of all known Emperor penguin colonies under new climate change scenarios meeting the Paris agreement objectives using a climate--dependent--metapopulation model. Under business--as--usual greenhouse gas emissions, large sea ice loss are projected by 2100. As a result, 80% of the colonies are projected to be quasi-extinct by 2100, thus the total abundance of Emperor penguins is projected to decline by at least 81% relative to its initial size, regardless of dispersal abilities. In contrast, if the Paris Agreement objectives are met, viable Emperor penguin refuges will exist in Antarctica because sea ice loss are projected to be much less severe. Only 19% and 31% colonies are projected to be quasi-extinct by 2100 under the Paris 1.5 and 2 climate scenarios respectively. As a result, the global population is projected to decline by at least by 31% under Paris 1.5 and 44% under Paris 2. However, population growth rates stabilize in 2060 such that the global population will be only declining at 0.07% under Paris 1.5 and 0.34% under Paris 2, thereby halting the global population decline. Hence, global climate policy has a larger capacity to safeguard the future of Emperor penguins than their intrinsic dispersal abilities. Authors: Hoilland Marika¹, David Iles², Sara Labrousse², Laura Landrum¹, Jimmy Garnier³, Hal Caswell², Henri Weimerskirch⁴, Michelle La Rue⁵, Rubao Ji², Christophe Barbraud⁴ ¹NCAR, ²WHOI, ³University Savoie Mont-Blanc, ⁴CEBC/CNRS, ⁵University of Canterbury