Climate change impacts on multi-species seabird wintering hotspots in the North Atlantic - An energyscape approach

• Main Authors: 3rd World Seabird Conference 2021, CLAIRBAUX, Manon
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: unknown
• Published: Underline Science Inc. 2021
• Subjects: Climate Change; Ecosystem; Ecology; FOS Biological sciences; Animal Science; Genomics; Arctic; Faroe Islands; Canada; Norway; Christensen; Petersen; Johansen; Borge; Baran; Fitzsimmons; Erikstad; Systad; Langset; Alle alle; Climate change; fratercula; Fratercula arctica; Global warming; Iceland; North Atlantic; Norwegian Polar Institute; rissa tridactyla; Uria aalge; Uria lomvia; University of Newfoundland; uria
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.48448/1762-cq18; https://underline.io/lecture/34895-climate-change-impacts-on-multi-species-seabird-wintering-hotspots-in-the-north-atlantic---an-energyscape-approach

Abstract: What are the forthcoming climate change impacts on the seabird community wintering in the North Atlantic? This is the question we addressed for five key species which represent 75% of all seabirds breeding in the North Atlantic (Alle alle, Fratercula arctica, Uria aalge, Uria lomvia and Rissa tridactyla), based on a multi-colony study. Specifically, we compiled tracking data for >1400 birds from 39 breeding colonies, to map their wintering distribution in the North Atlantic. We then modelled their energy requirements using NicheMapperTM, a mechanistic model which simulates heat exchanges between bird bodies and their surroundings based on species-specific morphological, physiological and behavioral characteristics. Further, we modelled seabird prey fields across the North Atlantic in winter, using Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Models parametrized according to the methods of the Nereus Program. Information on seabird energy requirements and energy available through their prey were then merged using Resource Selection Functions, to obtain multi-species wintering energyscapes. Finally, we used HadGEM2-ES outputs for two climatic scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) and two periods (2045-2055 and 2090-2100) to simulate future energyscapes for each species/colony, and to predict future winter distributions. Through this multidisciplinary approach using biologging, remote sensing, online databases and an array of modelling tools, we demonstrate how the North Atlantic seabird community may optimize its winter distribution under the influence of global warming. Notably, we speculate that a series of high-latitude species might become year-round Arctic residents in the near future. Our analyses illustrate how global warming may impact the biogeography of migratory species at multi-colony and community levels, and how seascape conservation and marine management should integrate these upcoming major changes. Authors: Manon Clairbaux¹, Jérôme Fort², Warren Porter³, Paul Mathewson³, William Cheung⁴, Hallvard Strøm⁵, Borge Møe⁶, Per Fauchald⁶, Sébastien Descamps⁷, Hálfdán Helgason⁷, Vegard Bråthen⁶, Benjamin Merkel⁷, Tycho Anker-Nilssen⁶, Ingar Bringsvor⁸, Olivier Chastel⁹, Signe Christensen-Dalsgaard⁶, Johannis Danielsen¹⁰, Francis Daunt¹¹, Nina Dehnhard⁶, Kjell Einar Erikstad⁶, Alexey Ezhov¹², Maria Gavrilo¹³, Yuri Krasnov¹², Magdalene Langset⁶, Svein Lorentsen⁶, Bergur Olsen¹⁴, Tone Reiersten⁶, Geir Systad⁶, Þorkel Þórarinsson¹⁵, Mark Baran¹⁶, Anthony Diamond¹⁶, Annette Fayet¹⁷, Michelle Fitzsimmons¹⁸, Morten Frederiksen¹⁹, H.Grant Gilchrist²⁰, Tim Guilford¹⁷, Nicholas Huffeldt¹⁹, Mark Jessopp¹, Kasper Johansen¹⁹, Amy-Lee Kouwenberg¹⁸, Jannie Linnebjerg¹⁹, Laura McFarlane Tranquilla²¹, Mark Mallory²², Flemming Merkel¹⁹, William Montevecchi¹⁸, Anders Mosbech¹⁹, Aevar Petersen²³, David Grémillet²⁴ ¹University College Cork, ²LIENSs CNRS, ³University of Wisconsin-Madison, ⁴Canada Research Chair and the University of British Columbia, ⁵Norwegian Polar Institute, ⁶Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, ⁷Norwegian Polar Institute, ⁸BirdLife Norway, ⁹CEBC-CNRS, ¹⁰University of the Faroe Islands, ¹¹CEH, ¹²MMBI, ¹³Association Maritime Heritage, ¹⁴Faroe Marine Research Institute, ¹⁵Northeast Iceland Nature Research Centre, ¹⁶University of New Brunswick, ¹⁷University of Oxford, ¹⁸Memorial University of Newfoundland, ¹⁹Århus University, ²⁰Wildlife Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, National Wildlife Research Centre, ²¹Bird Studies Canada, ²²Acadia University, ²³Icelandic Institute of Natural History, ²⁴CEFE CNRS