Iceberg drift ensemble forecasting
The goal of this thesis is to investigate whether ensemble modeling in iceberg drift forecasting improves predictions of an iceberg's trajectory. To do this, we have used a dynamic iceberg drift model and created an ensemble of realizations by applying stochastic perturbations to ocean current...
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2020
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ftdatacite:10.48336/tgm0-cv07 2023-05-15T15:22:37+02:00 Iceberg drift ensemble forecasting Kielley, Evan 2020 https://dx.doi.org/10.48336/tgm0-cv07 https://research.library.mun.ca/14403/ en eng Memorial University of Newfoundland Text article-journal ScholarlyArticle 2020 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.48336/tgm0-cv07 2021-11-05T12:55:41Z The goal of this thesis is to investigate whether ensemble modeling in iceberg drift forecasting improves predictions of an iceberg's trajectory. To do this, we have used a dynamic iceberg drift model and created an ensemble of realizations by applying stochastic perturbations to ocean current and wind reanalysis data, drawing from distributions of the ocean current and wind measured with ship-based instruments. In this study, we focus on simulating trajectories for two icebergs observed during the 2015 Statoil-ArcticNet research expedition. To conduct simulations, we initialized our model with observations of each iceberg at a particular time and location, then simulated a day of drift for each iceberg and compared the ensemble of simulation results to their actual known trajectories. In this comparison, we found inconsistent results. For one iceberg, the mean of the modelled trajectories was consistent with the observations but, for the other, none of the modelled trajectories were close. Overall, we conclude that ensemble modelling for iceberg drift forecasting is a useful technique only when the wind and current data driving the prediction is sufficiently accurate. Text ArcticNet DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
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English |
description |
The goal of this thesis is to investigate whether ensemble modeling in iceberg drift forecasting improves predictions of an iceberg's trajectory. To do this, we have used a dynamic iceberg drift model and created an ensemble of realizations by applying stochastic perturbations to ocean current and wind reanalysis data, drawing from distributions of the ocean current and wind measured with ship-based instruments. In this study, we focus on simulating trajectories for two icebergs observed during the 2015 Statoil-ArcticNet research expedition. To conduct simulations, we initialized our model with observations of each iceberg at a particular time and location, then simulated a day of drift for each iceberg and compared the ensemble of simulation results to their actual known trajectories. In this comparison, we found inconsistent results. For one iceberg, the mean of the modelled trajectories was consistent with the observations but, for the other, none of the modelled trajectories were close. Overall, we conclude that ensemble modelling for iceberg drift forecasting is a useful technique only when the wind and current data driving the prediction is sufficiently accurate. |
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Text |
author |
Kielley, Evan |
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Kielley, Evan Iceberg drift ensemble forecasting |
author_facet |
Kielley, Evan |
author_sort |
Kielley, Evan |
title |
Iceberg drift ensemble forecasting |
title_short |
Iceberg drift ensemble forecasting |
title_full |
Iceberg drift ensemble forecasting |
title_fullStr |
Iceberg drift ensemble forecasting |
title_full_unstemmed |
Iceberg drift ensemble forecasting |
title_sort |
iceberg drift ensemble forecasting |
publisher |
Memorial University of Newfoundland |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.48336/tgm0-cv07 https://research.library.mun.ca/14403/ |
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ArcticNet |
genre_facet |
ArcticNet |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.48336/tgm0-cv07 |
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1766353266506989568 |