Predictions of survival time for mass casualties of cold exposure

• Main Authors: Tikuisis, Peter, Keefe, Allan A.
• Format: Report
• Language: English
• Published: National Research Council of Canada 2012
• Subjects: Cold exposure; clo; arctic mass casualty scenario; escape; evacuation; and rescue; predicted survival times; Arctic
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.4224/21263087; https://nrc-publications.canada.ca/eng/view/object/?id=c6875a29-cfb7-4a56-9b80-e18eeecb92f2

This report presents predictions of the survival status of individuals most at risk of hypothermia during cold exposure in a simulated mass casualty Arctic scenario. The first section of this report explains the theoretical construct of the base prediction model, the caveats associated with its application, and model modifications specific to the contract requirements. The second section describes the conditions selected for simulation and the rationale for focusing on a specific, vulnerable sub-population. The third section presents the survival time predictions for this sub-population. The final section summarizes the findings with recommendations for further inquiry.