Refecting on the Science of Climate Tipping Points to Inform and Assist Policy Making and Address the Risks they Pose to Society ...

• Main Authors: Stocker, Thomas F., Jones, Richard G., Hegglin, Michaela I., Lenton, Timothy M., Hegerl, Gabriele C., Seneviratne, Sonia I., van der Wel, Narelle, Wood, Robert A.
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: ETH Zurich 2024
• Subjects: Tipping points; HILL events; IPCC assessment; Scientific consensus; Ice Sheet
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000678425; http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/678425

There is a diverging perception of climate tipping points, abrupt changes and surprises in the scientific community and the public. While such dynamics have been observed in the past, e.g., frequent reductions of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during the last ice age, or ice sheet collapses, tipping points might also be a possibility in an anthropogenically perturbed climate. In this context, high impact-low likelihood events, both in the physical realm as well as in ecosystems, will be potentially dangerous. Here we argue that a formalized assessment of the state of science is needed in order to establish a consensus on this issue and to reconcile diverging views. This has been the approach taken by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Since 1990, the IPCC has consistently generated robust consensus on several complex issues, ranging from the detection and attribution of climate change, the global carbon budget and climate sensitivity, to the projection of extreme events ... : Surveys in Geophysics ...