The Dynamical Tropopause Location as a Predictor for North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity ...

• Main Author: Enz, Bernhard
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: ETH Zurich 2023
• Subjects: Tropical Cyclone, Seasonal Prediction, Atmospheric Dynamics; infoeu-repo/classification/ddc/500; Natural sciences; FOS Natural sciences; North Atlantic
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000642452; http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/642452

Tropical cyclones are violent weather systems that can cause great damage to coastlines. Their successful prediction, on timescales ranging from a few days to the climate scale, has thus been a subject of scientific research for several decades. For the North Atlantic basin, seasonal and subseasonal forecasts are operationally produced by various agencies to aid in estimating the potential for damage caused throughout the season. The 2013 hurricane season was predicted to be above average in activity. In reality, only two category 1 hurricanes, and no major hurricane, occurred, which is far below average. Predictions of the total number of tropical cyclones were generally correct, which suggests that the intensification of tropical cyclones was impeded. It has since been argued that an abundance of Rossby wave breaking events in the North Atlantic basin caused an increase in vertical wind shear and a reduction in mid-tropospheric humidity, which would militate against intensification. Rossby wave breaking ...