Combination of Decadal Predictions and Climate Projections in Time: Challenges and Potential Solutions ...
This study presents an approach to provide seamless climate information by concatenating decadal climate predictions and climate projections in time. Results for near-surface air temperature over 29 regions indicate that such an approach has potential to provide meaningful information but can also i...
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Online Access: | https://dx.doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000563950 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/563950 |
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ftdatacite:10.3929/ethz-b-000563950 2024-04-28T08:21:49+00:00 Combination of Decadal Predictions and Climate Projections in Time: Challenges and Potential Solutions ... Befort, Daniel J. Brunner, Lukas Borchert, Leonard F. O'Reilly, Christopher H. Mignot, Juliette Ballinger, Andrew P. Hegerl, Gabriele C. Murphy, James M. Weisheimer, Antje 2022 application/pdf https://dx.doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000563950 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/563950 en eng ETH Zurich decadal predictions climate projections seamless prediction calibration weighting article-journal Text ScholarlyArticle Journal Article 2022 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000563950 2024-04-02T12:32:08Z This study presents an approach to provide seamless climate information by concatenating decadal climate predictions and climate projections in time. Results for near-surface air temperature over 29 regions indicate that such an approach has potential to provide meaningful information but can also introduce significant inconsistencies. Inconsistencies are often most pronounced for relatively extreme quantiles of the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble distribution, whereas they are generally smaller and mostly insignificant for quantiles close to the median. The regions most affected are the North Atlantic, Greenland and Northern Europe. Two potential ways to reduce inconsistencies are discussed, including a simple calibration method and a weighting approach based on model performance. Calibration generally reduces inconsistencies but does not eliminate all of them. The impact of model weighting is minor, which is found to be linked to the small size of the decadal climate prediction ensemble, which in turn limits ... : Geophysical Research Letters, 49 (15) ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland North Atlantic DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
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Open Polar |
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DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
op_collection_id |
ftdatacite |
language |
English |
topic |
decadal predictions climate projections seamless prediction calibration weighting |
spellingShingle |
decadal predictions climate projections seamless prediction calibration weighting Befort, Daniel J. Brunner, Lukas Borchert, Leonard F. O'Reilly, Christopher H. Mignot, Juliette Ballinger, Andrew P. Hegerl, Gabriele C. Murphy, James M. Weisheimer, Antje Combination of Decadal Predictions and Climate Projections in Time: Challenges and Potential Solutions ... |
topic_facet |
decadal predictions climate projections seamless prediction calibration weighting |
description |
This study presents an approach to provide seamless climate information by concatenating decadal climate predictions and climate projections in time. Results for near-surface air temperature over 29 regions indicate that such an approach has potential to provide meaningful information but can also introduce significant inconsistencies. Inconsistencies are often most pronounced for relatively extreme quantiles of the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble distribution, whereas they are generally smaller and mostly insignificant for quantiles close to the median. The regions most affected are the North Atlantic, Greenland and Northern Europe. Two potential ways to reduce inconsistencies are discussed, including a simple calibration method and a weighting approach based on model performance. Calibration generally reduces inconsistencies but does not eliminate all of them. The impact of model weighting is minor, which is found to be linked to the small size of the decadal climate prediction ensemble, which in turn limits ... : Geophysical Research Letters, 49 (15) ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Befort, Daniel J. Brunner, Lukas Borchert, Leonard F. O'Reilly, Christopher H. Mignot, Juliette Ballinger, Andrew P. Hegerl, Gabriele C. Murphy, James M. Weisheimer, Antje |
author_facet |
Befort, Daniel J. Brunner, Lukas Borchert, Leonard F. O'Reilly, Christopher H. Mignot, Juliette Ballinger, Andrew P. Hegerl, Gabriele C. Murphy, James M. Weisheimer, Antje |
author_sort |
Befort, Daniel J. |
title |
Combination of Decadal Predictions and Climate Projections in Time: Challenges and Potential Solutions ... |
title_short |
Combination of Decadal Predictions and Climate Projections in Time: Challenges and Potential Solutions ... |
title_full |
Combination of Decadal Predictions and Climate Projections in Time: Challenges and Potential Solutions ... |
title_fullStr |
Combination of Decadal Predictions and Climate Projections in Time: Challenges and Potential Solutions ... |
title_full_unstemmed |
Combination of Decadal Predictions and Climate Projections in Time: Challenges and Potential Solutions ... |
title_sort |
combination of decadal predictions and climate projections in time: challenges and potential solutions ... |
publisher |
ETH Zurich |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000563950 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/563950 |
genre |
Greenland North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Greenland North Atlantic |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000563950 |
_version_ |
1797583906607726592 |