Climate change reduces winter overland travel across the Pan-Arctic even under low-end global warming scenarios ...
Amplified climate warming has led to permafrost degradation and a shortening of the winter season, both impacting cost-effective overland travel across the Arctic. Here we use, for the first time, four state-of-the-art Land Surface Models that explicitly consider ground freezing states, forced by a...
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Online Access: | https://dx.doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000471295 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/471295 |
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ftdatacite:10.3929/ethz-b-000471295 2024-04-28T08:06:23+00:00 Climate change reduces winter overland travel across the Pan-Arctic even under low-end global warming scenarios ... Gädeke, Anne Langer, Moritz Boike, Julia Burke, Eleanor J. Chang, Jinfeng Head, Melissa Reyer, Christopher P.O. Schaphoff, Sibyll Thiery, Wim Thonicke, Kirsten 2021 application/pdf https://dx.doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000471295 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/471295 en eng ETH Zurich info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode cc-by-4.0 permafrost climate change land surface models Arctic transport winter roads ice roads Arctic accessibility article-journal Text ScholarlyArticle Journal Article 2021 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000471295 2024-04-02T12:34:54Z Amplified climate warming has led to permafrost degradation and a shortening of the winter season, both impacting cost-effective overland travel across the Arctic. Here we use, for the first time, four state-of-the-art Land Surface Models that explicitly consider ground freezing states, forced by a subset of bias-adjusted CMIP5 General Circulation Models to estimate the impact of different global warming scenarios (RCP2.6, 6.0, 8.5) on two modes of winter travel: overland travel days (OTDs) and ice road construction days (IRCDs). We show that OTDs decrease by on average −13% in the near future (2021–2050) and between −15% (RCP2.6) and −40% (RCP8.5) in the far future (2070–2099) compared to the reference period (1971–2000) when 173 d yr−1 are simulated across the Pan-Arctic. Regionally, we identified Eastern Siberia (Sakha (Yakutia), Khabarovsk Krai, Magadan Oblast) to be most resilient to climate change, while Alaska (USA), the Northwestern Russian regions (Yamalo, Arkhangelsk Oblast, Nenets, Komi, ... : Environmental Research Letters, 16 (2) ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arkhangelsk Climate change Global warming Ice nenets permafrost Sakha Yakutia Alaska Arkhangelsk Oblast Siberia DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) |
op_collection_id |
ftdatacite |
language |
English |
topic |
permafrost climate change land surface models Arctic transport winter roads ice roads Arctic accessibility |
spellingShingle |
permafrost climate change land surface models Arctic transport winter roads ice roads Arctic accessibility Gädeke, Anne Langer, Moritz Boike, Julia Burke, Eleanor J. Chang, Jinfeng Head, Melissa Reyer, Christopher P.O. Schaphoff, Sibyll Thiery, Wim Thonicke, Kirsten Climate change reduces winter overland travel across the Pan-Arctic even under low-end global warming scenarios ... |
topic_facet |
permafrost climate change land surface models Arctic transport winter roads ice roads Arctic accessibility |
description |
Amplified climate warming has led to permafrost degradation and a shortening of the winter season, both impacting cost-effective overland travel across the Arctic. Here we use, for the first time, four state-of-the-art Land Surface Models that explicitly consider ground freezing states, forced by a subset of bias-adjusted CMIP5 General Circulation Models to estimate the impact of different global warming scenarios (RCP2.6, 6.0, 8.5) on two modes of winter travel: overland travel days (OTDs) and ice road construction days (IRCDs). We show that OTDs decrease by on average −13% in the near future (2021–2050) and between −15% (RCP2.6) and −40% (RCP8.5) in the far future (2070–2099) compared to the reference period (1971–2000) when 173 d yr−1 are simulated across the Pan-Arctic. Regionally, we identified Eastern Siberia (Sakha (Yakutia), Khabarovsk Krai, Magadan Oblast) to be most resilient to climate change, while Alaska (USA), the Northwestern Russian regions (Yamalo, Arkhangelsk Oblast, Nenets, Komi, ... : Environmental Research Letters, 16 (2) ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Gädeke, Anne Langer, Moritz Boike, Julia Burke, Eleanor J. Chang, Jinfeng Head, Melissa Reyer, Christopher P.O. Schaphoff, Sibyll Thiery, Wim Thonicke, Kirsten |
author_facet |
Gädeke, Anne Langer, Moritz Boike, Julia Burke, Eleanor J. Chang, Jinfeng Head, Melissa Reyer, Christopher P.O. Schaphoff, Sibyll Thiery, Wim Thonicke, Kirsten |
author_sort |
Gädeke, Anne |
title |
Climate change reduces winter overland travel across the Pan-Arctic even under low-end global warming scenarios ... |
title_short |
Climate change reduces winter overland travel across the Pan-Arctic even under low-end global warming scenarios ... |
title_full |
Climate change reduces winter overland travel across the Pan-Arctic even under low-end global warming scenarios ... |
title_fullStr |
Climate change reduces winter overland travel across the Pan-Arctic even under low-end global warming scenarios ... |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate change reduces winter overland travel across the Pan-Arctic even under low-end global warming scenarios ... |
title_sort |
climate change reduces winter overland travel across the pan-arctic even under low-end global warming scenarios ... |
publisher |
ETH Zurich |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000471295 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/471295 |
genre |
Arctic Arkhangelsk Climate change Global warming Ice nenets permafrost Sakha Yakutia Alaska Arkhangelsk Oblast Siberia |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arkhangelsk Climate change Global warming Ice nenets permafrost Sakha Yakutia Alaska Arkhangelsk Oblast Siberia |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode cc-by-4.0 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000471295 |
_version_ |
1797575892382253056 |