Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems ...

• Main Authors: Ito, Akihiko, Reyer, Christopher P.O., Gädeke, Anne, Ciais, Philippe, Chang, Jinfeng, Chen, Min, François, Louis, Forrest, Matthew, Hickler, Thomas, Ostberg, Sebastian, Shi, Hao, Thiery, Wim, Tian, Hanqin
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: ETH Zurich 2020
• Subjects: biome sector; ISIMIP2b; northern high latitudes; Paris agreement; climatic impacts; Arctic; Climate change; Global warming; Tundra
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000409092; http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/409092

Arctic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change because of Arctic amplification. Here, we assessed the climatic impacts of low-end, 1.5 °C, and 2.0 °C global temperature increases above pre-industrial levels, on the warming of terrestrial ecosystems in northern high latitudes (NHL, above 60 °N including pan-Arctic tundra and boreal forests) under the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b protocol. We analyzed the simulated changes of net primary productivity, vegetation biomass, and soil carbon stocks of eight ecosystem models that were forced by the projections of four global climate models and two atmospheric greenhouse gas pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0). Our results showed that considerable impacts on ecosystem carbon budgets, particularly primary productivity and vegetation biomass, are very likely to occur in the NHL areas. The models agreed on increases in primary productivity and biomass accumulation, despite considerable inter-model and ... : Environmental Research Letters, 15 (4) ...