GlacierMIP-A model intercomparison of global-scale glacier mass-balance models and projections ...

• Main Authors: Hock, Regine, Bliss, Andrew, Marzeion, Ben, Giesen, Rianne H., Hirabayashi, Yukiko, Huss, Matthias, Radic, Valentina, Slangen, Aimée A.
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: ETH Zurich 2019
• Subjects: glacier modeling; glacier mass balance; ice and climate; mountain glaciers; Antarc*; Antarctic; glacier; Greenland
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000348058; http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/348058

Global-scale 21st-century glacier mass change projections from six published global glacier models are systematically compared as part of the Glacier Model Intercomparison Project. In total 214 projections of annual glacier mass and area forced by 25 General Circulation Models (GCMs) and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission scenarios and aggregated into 19 glacier regions are considered. Global mass loss of all glaciers (outside the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets) by 2100 relative to 2015 averaged over all model runs varies from 18 ± 7% (RCP2.6) to 36 ± 11% (RCP8.5) corresponding to 94 ± 25 and 200 ± 44 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE), respectively. Regional relative mass changes by 2100 correlate linearly with relative area changes. For RCP8.5 three models project global rates of mass loss (multi-GCM means) of >3 mm SLE per year towards the end of the century. Projections vary considerably between regions, and also among the glacier models. Global glacier mass changes per degree ... : Journal of Glaciology, 65 (251) ...